Posts by Rod David
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s range held up ahead of Thursday’s ECB policy statement and Mario Draghi press conference to come. They’re being greeted from a position of strength, to the extent that this week’s price action has been restrained optimism. It’s not enough to prevent a reaction down, but should enable a recovery.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Attacking 1350.00 later Tuesday was retraced down to the 1337.50 sell signal. Its test held, keeping alive potential to retest 1350.00.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s intraday attack on 18.10 didn’t extend any higher overnight. Its reaction down Wednesday held support at what had been the rally’s 17.90 target.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Without any “unfinished business above” Tuesday’s 157-04 high, Wednesday tried probing higher to 157-12. Its reaction down probed back under last week highs and the new 156-24 sell signal.
Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday’s gap up extended intraday to test 49.40. Pullbacks must now hold 47.95 to maintain the upside momentum. Closing under 47.95 — especially Thursday, which includes the week’s delayed EIA report — would be likely to retest recent lows very rapidly.
Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday’s dip back down to the 2.98 buy signal was recovered Wednesday to test the new 3.02 buy signal, which held. But Thursday’s EIA report is still being greeted from a position of strength, having confirmed last Thursday’s breakout with at least an eventual third higher close outstanding.
Mid-day Update… Holding up, not breaking out.
Hovering at pre-open highs.
This morning’s bias-up environment was triggered after having tested its 2466.75 bias-up target. 
Reacting down only attacked its 2461.00 bias-up signal by 10:30. It was probed under 2459.00 — twice. But it was too late to trend down, since the bias-up signal must define the bias-up environment’s lower-end. So, 2461.00 was recovered while the bias environment lapsed.
And the recovery extended through the noon hour, attacking the morning’s highs. But this afternoon’s bias parameter triggered noN-bias. The 2465.50 bias-up signal was still being overlapped at both 1:20 AND 1:30. This is not a bias-up environment with a bias-up target in-play, or a no-bias environment required to hold the bias-up signal.
Having said that, noN-bias environments often behave like no-bias and hold the bias signal. More so, hovering at the bias signal often breaks through it when the bias environment begins lapsing. But dipping back under 2463.50 would start to signal a retest of this morning’s lows underway.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Sep 7, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Thursday’s ECB policy statement and Mario Draghi press conference occur well before the open. But they’re high-profile and influential to price action. And any net price movement left behind would likely be duplicated in reaction to the mornings post-open reports.
*ECB policy statement
7:00 AM ET
ECB press conference
7:15 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Productivity and Costs
8:30 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
Quarterly Services Survey
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
11:00 AM ET
*Loretta Mester Speaks
12:15 PM ET
Treasury STRIPS
3:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2466.25 | 2465.50 |
| …would target | 2471.25 | 2470.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2458.00 | 2457.50 |
| …would target | 2452.75 | 2452.00 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, STILL TESTING BIAS SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… All biased-up and nowhere to go.
Bias-up target met, held.
Like the first overnight dip to 2457.50, the second dip was recovered to a higher high, greeting the open at 2465.00. Overnight choppiness has persisted post-open.
A couple of probes higher have reacted back down under the open. The second post-open probe pierced the 2466.75 bias-up target by 1 tick. Its reaction down attacked the 2461.00 bias-up signal to within 1 tick. This is a bias-up environment, whose target has been met.
Already having met and reacted down from the bias-up target, its resistance tends to hold through the morning. It’s not required. Meanwhile, the bias-up signal should define the morning’s lower-end if tested as support. Probing under it would be required to retrace.
So, post-open buyers quickly satisfied buying pressure and aren’t indicating they’ll gain traction for the effort. That’s similar to yesterday afternoon’s buyers. Neither setup prevents extending higher anyway, but not reliably, and the door remains open to launching another downleg.