Posts by Rod David
Post-open Review… Cooler heads.
Post-open bounce.
Tuesday’s open was indicated at the 2427.25-2429.00 objective which needed to hold through 9:45 to begin signaling the overnight drop had ended. 
Back above 2430.75 would be optimal. Otherwise, breaking lower quickly would signal that the intraday crowd wanted to express its own knee-jerk reaction to yesterday’s post-close headline.
Up could recover the 2433.50 bias-down target and more, perhaps also fill the gap back up to yesterday’s 2443.00 close. Extending the drop would target 2411.75, if not also sub-2400.00.
The opening minute resolved up, as did the first 15 minutes and the first half-hour. Bias-down wasn’t renewed, but this is still a bias-down environment with its upside limited to its 2439.00 bias-down signal. That’s just another 6 ticks higher. But it’s still a bias-down environment.
Back under 2433.50 would be likely to retest the open, and the open’s retest would be unlikely to hold. The 2411.75 and sub-2400.00 objectives would be in-play.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Duck, or cover?
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Like Friday’s open, Monday’s gap up to 2448.25 was too shallow to be maintained. Friday’s had more optimism to express — first extending higher before resolving down, and then still holding positive territory. Monday’s gap up was reversed down immediately, but only briefly probed into negative territory — just long enough to fulfill the morning’s 2439.75 bias objective below. The low also touched 2438.00, which had no bullish reason to be retested, but its reaction into the close touched 2444.25.
Overnight action’s new info…
Any higher into the close would have triggered a buy signal. I can’t divulge whether Kim Jong Un is a subscriber, but his timing was otherwise perfect. Lobbing a missile over Japan spiked the Globex open down more than 20 points to 2423.50. Recovering up to 2433.00 was eventually pierced by 2 ticks to touch this morning’s bias-down target ahead of Europe’s opens. That triggered a second downleg to 2421.00, which just bounced up to 2427.75.
If, then…
Retesting 2438.00 Monday was already likely to be probed down to 2427.25-2429.00. And it was not at all assured of holding hold as support, let alone launching a better recovery. Probing 6-8 points under it overnight doesn’t make it any less likely to hold. That’s because knee-jerk reactions to headlines are generally weak-handed. The external motivation can crowd out organic strong-handed distribution. Happening overnight can even exacerbate the situation. This might be the most bullish scenario the market could have “hoped” for. All of which assumes, of course, that Kim doesn’t fire a second salvo, or that his foes don’t escalate matters. Regardless, 2411.75 and sub-2400.00 may yet be tested intraday in before even the most bullish resolution.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2429.00 would be unlikely to recover the 2433.50 bias-down target by 10:15, renewing the bias-down signal next targeting 2427.25. Exiting the open under 2438.00 would be likely at least to trigger the 2439.00 bias-down signal.
Phonetic dictation…
Alright good morning and welcome it is Tuesday it’s time for Tuesday’s Morning Market or we’ve got really interesting swing over night of course that doesn’t even reflect it all that yesterday we came into the closed ahead of the clothes we had to buy a signal that would have triggered 4425 it was touched not even if the cash and clothes really well I have some clothes but it’s by the way so there’s a chance to and get down you’re doing it overnight also exacerbates the effect is well maybe we don’t gap down that much could we could open say 35 dip down to 2927 and then recover and I don’t want to put any limits on it recovery I know what to put in the expectations on it recovery because it could just come back to fill the Gap back yesterday’s clothes 43 area and then resolved down it would cut it could recover 43 and put in a bigger bounce 261 we could even be looking at that bigger rally 277 so I don’t want to put any expectations on the ultimate recovery just to see the open Weather recoveries even going to be the next big leg wherever the open is again 24 3536 area probably but dip to 2729 and then recover that’s the likeliest opening scenario weather again whether it’s just a fill the Gap at the essays close 43 extend to 6177 still vulnerable T2 resume into the climb from one of those and that’s if 2729 holds toy 429 doesn’t even have to support doesn’t even have to hold down anyway Not Unusual pattern and so from this point on any selling is it has all this extra room now to be absorbed before it can actually affect affect the upside silver slightly short of its upside potential 1780 hanging upside turmoil long Bond Big Move higher remains very the outside remains very much intact this has been an ongoing bottom really we started tracking the bottom back of 152 and now trading back to and through the prior High and you can’t really see it in here let me get rid of some of this somewhat of a cooling effect coming into the high maybe a little bit of a dip possible that it 156 24th will really to fill the Gap back to what would then be as close to get back to you soon as close but a lot of upside Potential from there and then crude oil actually flat here but yesterday’s performance Albany Shores 4550 the next large active which API by the way released after today’s and play yesterday and we’ve been tracking me .
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2448.25 | 2447.50 |
| …would target | 2453.50 | 2452.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2439.75 | 2439.00 |
| …would target | 2434.25 | 2433.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Monday’s open mirrored Friday’s gap up, in that both were too shallow to be maintained. At least Friday’s gap up extended higher before reversing into negative territory. Monday’s gap up began reversing down immediately, also eventually probing negative territory.
Negative territory was probed down to 2438.00. That’s relevant support, but it already had an opportunity to launch a recovery. Testing it during the noon hour does keep open the door to recovery, but doesn’t relieve it from needing to gap up. Otherwise, there’s no bullish reason to have retested 2438.00, and its break would target 2427.25-2429.00.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Already having spiked up into the weekend, gapping up Sunday night touched the 1.1955-1.1970 target area’s upper-end. Its reaction down was recovered entirely through the morning, and extended to fresh highs attacking 1.2000.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Friday’s retest of the 1288.00 sell signal was deeper than Tuesday, and its reaction still held a test of its prior high. But it was a second failure to extend lower, which Sunday night exploited by rallying into Monday morning’s test of the 1302.00 buy signal. A second leg surged to its 1313.00 target, and through it to also test 1315.00, next targeting 1322.00.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
The 16.90 sell signal had held two tests as support and closed back at its prior high, while testing what had been the rally’s 17.05 pullback limit. Sunday night probed higher to test its 17.20 buy signal into Monday’s open. Reacting down toward unchanged was reversed up by another upleg attacking 17.50, all but ensuring 17.80 is targeted.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Ranging narrowly Sunday night while stocks were battered about does reflect a degree of stability to keep alive the likelihood for one more probe higher. But it also reflects some complacency creeping in to suggest that one more probe higher may be final.
Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Friday’s bounce back up to the 47.95 sell signal resolved down sharply Monday morning to fresh lows at 46.15, which should not be retested at this stage unless the next downleg is actually getting underway. the next lower support is at 45.50.
Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
[Rolling coverage forward to Oct, which is trading at a 2-3 cent premium to Sep]. Dropping overnight extended to fresh lows at 2.88 within a nickel of the 2.84 target. A post-open surge tested 2.98 briefly, which the decline would marginalize as noise by closing back under 2.94.