Posts by Rod David
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Monday’s opening probe under Friday’s low and the overnight low down to 2415.75 was relatively brief. And it was largely retraced up to 2429.50. But it was not rejected, since no relevant level was recovered through any relevant timing window.
A late-afternoon attempt to resume the decline under 2422.75 was retraced by a later-afternoon bounce testing 2428.25. Both levels held, preventing any hold-long or hold-short consideration. So, the decline could continue without further delay. Or it could be retraced a little further to retest Friday morning’s 2439.50 high.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Friday’s bounce back up to the 1.1765 sell signal was extended Monday morning to attack the prior Friday’s 1.1845 close, which must be rejected back down to avoid a more substantial rally.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
No unfinished business above didn’t prevent Monday morning from firming back up to resistance attacking 1300.00. But there is no requirement for probing any higher, so there should be almost no delay in resuming last week’s reaction down from having fulfilled the 1305.00 target.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Fluctuating relatively narrowly around unchanged Monday is not equivalent to stability, but the pattern will likely require a false break in one direction to produce a stronger move in the opposite direction.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping up and spending Monday morning in positive territory was still contained within Friday’s range, and not yet signaling that the rally was extending.
Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The 48.75 corrective bounce limit held Sunday night for Monday morning to drop back to and through the 48.25 sell signal to attack 47.00. Similarly, very little retracement of the drop should delay resuming the decline.
Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Still overlapping 2.95 Monday prevented decisively recovering it, which would signal that Monday’s bounce back above 2.95 had sealed a bottom, no longer needing a pullback to 2.81 for its completion.
Mid-day Update… Hope springs again.
Noon hour prints fresh post-open highs.
WedEX’s bearish influence was essentially limited to probing a new trend low, and to the morning’s range being exclusively negative territory. But the bias environment itself was a rally that attacked the open’s 2428.25 high. Regardless, its influence is done.
Potential for being attracted back up to the opening range was fulfilled by a 10-point bounce off the 2415.75 low. The 2414.25 bias-down target became “unfinished business below.” Bouncing higher into the noon hour tested this afternoon’s 2429.00 bias-up signal by 2 ticks. But the noon hour exit had dipped to 2525.25.
This afternoon’s no-bias environment need not resolve either way today, and it will be vulnerable to resolving either way. Back above 2429.00 would have potential for retesting Friday morning’s 2439.50 high. Otherwise, probing back under Friday’s 2424.50 cash session close and resuming the decline could extend into Wednesday morning.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Aug 22, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday has the first of this week’s several housing sector reports. But it’s not very high-profile, and has no track record of influencing price action.
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
FHFA House Price Index
9:00 AM ET
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2430.00 | 2429.00 |
| …would target | 2435.50 | 2434.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2421.00 | 2420.00 |
| …would target | 2415.25 | 2414.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.