Posts by Rod David
Saturday Review Link
Be sure to join us by 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review. After discussing the bigger picture and gaming out strategies for playing next week’s likelier opening setups, we’ll do instant analysis of any stock charts that you request… See you there!
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2431.25 | 2430.00 |
| …would target | 2436.25 | 2435.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2422.25 | 2421.25 |
| …would target | 2415.50 | 2414.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
“Will they, or won’t they” test Thursday night lows was answered without delay Friday, by sliding into and out of the open to fresh lows at 2419.50. The longstanding attraction to 2425.25 was fulfilled along the way. The entire morning consolidated under last Thursday’s 2430.50 overnight low.
That’s an anchor.
Rallying into and out of the bias environment lapsing was extended to a noon hour high at 2439.50. Expending so much buying pressure so quickly made it easy for the WedEX’s bearish influence. But it didn’t ensure it. The afternoon bias environment was entered already back under 2432.00 and probed 4 points lower. Another 4 points lower to 2424.00 were probed into the close.
Friday Factors weren’t necessarily bullish. The morning’s drop was not a failed attempt to trend down, having formed an anchor. That didn’t ensure its retest intraday, let alone its break. But the effort applied to avoiding its test only expended buying pressure without gaining any traction for the effort. And ultimately, closing action dipped into
Meanwhile, the bearish WedEX was influential Friday afternoon. So, we assume it will be influential Monday morning — often, much more so. We’ll discuss that in greater detail during this weekend’s Saturday Review.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
JOIN US AT 9:30AM ET FOR THIS WEEKEND’S SATURDAY REVIEW. WE’LL DISCUSS THE BIGGER PICTURE AND MONDAY’S OPENING STRATEGY. YOU CAN REQUEST INSTANT ANALYSIS OF ANY CHART. THE LINK WILL BE SENT IN THE MORNING.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Friday morning’s narrow ranging around the 1.1765 sell signal helped to confirm its relevance in a way not yet done this week, but it still has yet to resolve.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Rallying overnight to probe the 1305.00 target by a couple of dollars was reversed back down through the morning and noon hour to test negative territory and the 1290.00 pullback limit. Friday’s 1301.20 gap up above all prior highs does still want to be retested before a decline can be credible for extending.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up Friday to 17.20 was not above prior highs So, despite probing higher, reversing down into negative territory under 17.00 doesn’t leave any “unfinished business above” before a durable decline would be credible.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Sharply higher highs to 156-12 Friday are entirely in-line with the bullish pattern continuing to unfold, and its destination as a flight-to-safety amid broader market behavior. Stocks turning up triggered a pullback to last week’s “lower prior highs” at 155-16 as support.
Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Initially firming a little Friday morning extended more substantially through the morning to probe the 48.25 sell signal. The ongoing series of lower lows and lower highs has its first higher high, but still needs another to reverse the trend up. Meanwhile, closing back above 48.75 would signal a new rally leg already underway, instead of retesting the lows fist.
Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
So long as 2.95 isn’t recovered, more thoroughly testing the 2.92 .bounce limit into Friday morning didn’t invalidate Wednesday’s break under 2.91 that had put into play a test of 2.81-2.82.
Mid-day Update… WedEX time?
Noon hour probes fresh highs. Any buyers left?
It’s now Friday afternoon. The bearish WedEX influence should be obvious during this window. Either by price dropping, or by a test of resistance being retraced.
The bounce off this morning’s lows injected a lot of optimism. Drifting lower to deflate it, simply as noise, would still be a downward bias. But it wouldn’t be the bearish influence that the signal suggests.
The open’s 2419.50 low was attacked to within 1 point as the bias environment lapsing came within view. That coincided with rumors of Trump firing Bannon, triggering a rally up to 2431.50 into the actual bias environment lapse at 11:30. The news was confirmed and the rally extended into the noon hour up to 2435.50. That’s bullish. Indeed, the noon hour probed higher to 2439.50.
But this afternoon’s 2434.50 bias-up signal didn’t trigger. And the afternoon’s bearish WedEX is now influential. The reaction down from session highs is testing 2430.00. Back above 2436.50 would start to signal momentum reversing up, and leave only one bearish opportunity to react down from retesting the noon hour’s 2439.50 high. The trend is otherwise down.