Posts by Rod David
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Thursday night’s lows didn’t bottom at an arbitrary level, but upon testing and retesting Friday morning’s 2430.75 bias-down target. 
Rallying 16 points into the morning’s bias environment high was counter-trend, trying to reverse up in the context of an ongoing decline. It failed.
More than failing the attempt to reverse up, the bias environment trended down. More bearish context. So, an afternoon bias environment recovery attempt would be doomed to failure. If there were one. And there was. <<==(click for a video lesson)
Its reaction down retraced to the morning’s post-open 2436.00 low. And no deeper, before bouncing into the close. That is already dubious support, and now it has been chipped away. It won’t be likely to withstand a retest of Thursday night’s lows if retested.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
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Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Friday’s reaction up tested the 1.1820 buy signal, and continued testing it into the afternoon. It still lacks optimal credibility since so much time was spent hovering optimistically at the 1.1730 lower prior highs already.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Initially spiking up Friday to test 1298.00 was reversed down hard into negative territory. But only momentarily as price recovered to flat-to-even, maintaining potential to 1305.00.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday’s dip touched Wednesday’s 16.90 lower prior highs as support and recovered back above the 17.05 pullback limit to keep alive the upside potential.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Initially rallying to fresh highs overnight, Friday morning’s retracement back into the 154-30/155-08 range held a test. More than hold a test, it must produce a higher close to confirm the rally has extended, and not that a top is forming.
Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Overnight weakness persisted into Friday’s opening test of fresh 3-week lows and of the 48.25 sell signal piercing 48.00. The reaction up held the test, but also failed to recover into 3-week range, keeping alive the potential for breaking more substantially under 48.25.
Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s narrow ranging at Thursday’s highs was not bearish, consolidating the surge and the entire week’s rally off of the prior week’s lows. It still doesn’t preclude a potential dip to 2.91-2.92 or its break down to 2.81-2.82, but from a position of strength that would likely recover and resume the rally.
Mid-day Update… Stunned.
Ranging narrowly sideways, not a care in the world.
This morning’s bounce up to 2446.50 trended back down to 2438.00 as the bias environment lapsed. Only firming since then back up to 2444.00, the afternoon bias environment triggered no-bias above 2442.00.
A constant rule on Fridays is that something tried and failed in the morning is likely to fail if tried in the afternoon. Today, that’s the morning’s recovery effort. It can be overcome, but buyers are held to a higher standard of proof. Exiting the noon hour at fresh session highs would have worked, but that window has closed.
Attempts to trend away from 2442.00 won’t be easy initially. A sustained break probably needs to be aggressive to be credible. A shallow break that doesn’t immediately recover could begin attracting sponsorship might deserve several minutes before its opportunity to extend can be dismissed.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Aug 14, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: No econ reports are scheduled as the new week begins.
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2447.75 | 2445.50 |
| …would target | 2452.50 | 2450.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2439.50 | 2437.50 |
| …would target | 2434.00 | 2431.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.