Posts by Rod David
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Still in the range.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Another narrowly ranging day? The fourth consecutive, and even Wednesday’s FOMC policy statement couldn’t shake the recent streak. Pre-open probing 1-point above Tuesday’s 2478.75 high was reversed down for the balance of the session to test the 2472.00 overnight low. The cash session close blipped-up to 2475.00.
Overnight action’s new info…
Wednesday’s late blip-up from its fresh low was extended immediately, and then relentlessly, back up to Wednesday’s 2478.50 opening high. A nearly 3-point dip into Europe’s opens was snapped back up to fresh highs at 2480.00. Another dip is back to hovering under 2478.50.
If, then…
Once again, neither sellers nor buyers gained traction for their efforts yesterday. So, trending in either direction this morning won’t be very credible without a gap up originating it. The open is two hours away, but currently indicated AT the past two sessions’ highs. A catalyst for pushing higher could by lying among the several pre-open econ reports scheduled. Pre-open earnings announcements haven’t been any help.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2479.50 would be likely to trigger the 2478.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2475.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Phonetic dictation…
good morning and welcome it is Thursday at 7 Thursdays morning market tour all systems are go that is the chart room is up we had an issue yesterday with turns out it was Adobe they were experiencing some transmission issues that affected ability to maintain the room and broadcast my connectivity administrative panels were locked out or slow to respond and their audio facilities weren’t handling the band with but everything seems go as far as that’s concerned today I was the market well because we’re interesting. It looks like we’ve got rained here lots of relatively speaking not huge. Minor but it’s all happening overnight there is an overnight dip Thursday into Friday is relatively narrow range and Mondays inside day essentially and said that there is an overnight Gap up Monday night or Tuesday Morning in the Tuesday’s relatively narrow day and then Wednesday’s essentially inside day I’m in really was almost inside a remarkable and two guards when is sitting at the highs for one thing and for another thing and that is very late the other thing is well sorry that in itself would qualify strictly technically as a session 1 rally I’d be a little suspicious just because it’s coming out of a range instead of actually you know trending down through the afternoon and rejecting the trend down what’s really big rejected is just the rain Jing but in any case that’s a good start to the upside is to maintain a gap up especially if it’s extended through the opening 15 minutes not doing that doesn’t prevent extending higher anyway we instill open a door with in the highs and having been improved above the eyes pre-open still get that screw it attitude from the market if you don’t what is the poster of the two vultures sitting in the desert pardon my French but page they’re sent one says the other patience my ass I’m going to kill something instead of waiting for the opening they’re going to go for it so I would anticipate if the open even if it’s not gapping up so long as it doesn’t Gap up and fail to maintain a gap up so long as it doesn’t Gap up try extending higher and fail to maintain that extension so long as it just opens and holds through the open I’m still going to be looking for a fresh eyes not going to look for them to maintain will look for a syllable look for that to be doomed to failure anyway because it will be originating from an instant I’m sorry will be originating from a lack of traction without rejecting that lack of tracks without grabbing up in extending higher but in this instance in this pattern I’m going to give it a benefit of the doubt so long as an open towards the upper end of the rain isn’t rejected through the open I will be very happy to buy or at least be exposed to the potential whipsaw probing above the highs and extending higher 2484 in just the same way that a reaction down or a gap down and trending I just the same way that would have found buyers I would expect this to find sellers whether its 84 or 90 and it couldn’t be today so that those them are the potential pads for today the upside again unusual just want to be clear about it doesn’t require maintaining and preferably extending an opening Gap up this is the overnight it’s tempered enthusiasm temporary or restrained optimism I’ll give it a better for the doubt if it’s just slope I’ll give it a long as it’s and is well with Chad left outstanding at 1670 Target fulfilled it probing largest salon on silver by the way pull back limit now is 1660 to maintain its upside long Bond not following through right up to the .
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2480.25 | 2478.00 |
| …would target | 2486.00 | 2484.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2471.00 | 2469.00 |
| …would target | 2465.75 | 2463.50 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Even Wednesday’s FOMC policy statement couldn’t shake what is now a four-day streak of narrowly ranging sessions. There’s no actual trending, and it IS for lack of trying:
Gapping up Wednesday above Tuesday’s 2478.75 high could have formed a session-long rally setup. But the prior high held, and the balance of the session trended down to the 2472.00 overnight low. Had the attempt been any more substantial, there would be a more substantial bearish consequence for its rejection. Instead, the complete retracement is sufficient. On the other end of the day is the small, late probe under Tuesday’s low. Somewhat similarly, starting it earlier would have reflected strong-handed sponsorship. Instead, the late break’s failure doesn’t imply some bullish resolution.
Once again, neither sellers nor buyers gained traction for their efforts. So, trending in either direction Thursday morning won’t be very credible without a gap up originating it.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Piercing the 1.1650 sell signal overnight held through Wednesday morning ahead of the afternoon’s FOMC policy statement. Its reaction surged back up to Tuesday morning’s high, likely also t test 1.1755.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The pullback extended overnight to test the rally’s prior objective of 1244.00 as support ahead of the afternoon’s FOMC policy statement. The reaction rallied back into positive territory at 1255.50, still targeting 1259.70.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
A relatively shallow pullback overnight produced a gap down that ranged sideways throughout Wednesday’s session. Reaction to the FOMC policy statement surged back toward the week’s 16.60 high, still targeting 16.70.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Probing slightly lower overnight was extended deeper Wednesday morning. Repeating Tuesday’s deep drop was avoided, which can be bullish for the long bond’s behavior following a single session’s steep move. But the afternoon’s FOMC policy statement was not greeted from a position of strength, other than to have expended a lot of selling pressure very recently.
Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Fluctuating around 48.25 overnight allowed a favorable reaction on Wednesday morning’s EIA report to attack 48.90. Its reaction down into negative territory filled the gap back to Monday’s 47.90 close and bounced back above 48.25.
Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
An overnight probe above the 2.95 buy signal was reversed to gap down Wednesday. Extending down through the morning filled the gap back down to Monday’s 2.89. Thursday’s EIA report is not being greeted from a position of strength, except for there being no unfinished business below.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Jul 27, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Three of Thursday’s four pre-open reports is high-profile, and at least one is reliably influential to price action. Any noticeable reaction to them would likely repeat on post-open reports.
*Durable Goods Orders
8:30 AM ET
International Trade in Goods
8:30 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Chicago Fed National Activity Index
8:30 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index
11:00 AM ET
7-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET