Posts by Rod David
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Thursday afternoon’s 2470.50-2474.50 range overlapped or was supported by Wednesday’s 2471.00 cash session high. The closing bar was overlapping it, too. If it’s confirmation of Wednesday’s breakout, then it’s not optimal. No higher close is required.
Probing higher highs is possible. The 2476.25 “new Globex trend extreme” requires an intraday retest at some point. Closing near it in its orbit doesn’t make its near-term test any likelier. Similarly, closing further away from “unfinished business below” at 2463.50 doesn’t make it less likely to be tested first.
Regardless, trend extremes don’t usually form into expirations. And the bullish WedEX already suggests an upward afternoon bias Friday — from what level, we don’t yet know. An overnight or morning drop that neutralizes 2463.50 would help to clear the way to trending up into and out of the weekend. Simply extending higher without another detour down might be inhibited.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Dipping ahead of Thursday morning’s ECB events tested almost the entirety of 1.1510-1.1525 as support, where any lower would have signaled the trend reversing down. Instead the support test launched a surge to fresh highs, fulfilling the 1.1650 target and extending even higher to 1.1695.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s mini-flash crash had tested the original 1236.00 objective as support and recovered up to the 1244.00 objective. Thursday’s retest of the flash crash low was also recovered, to a fresh high above 1247.00 forming an “outside day.” The prior high was still being overlapped. Not immediately reversing back down Friday would signal the recovery is extending, with potential to 1259.75.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Initially dipping overnight to retest Wednesday’s mini-flash crash low, Thursday morning recovered back up to more thoroughly test the entire 16.32-16.35 objective’s range. Closing back under 16.15 would signal at least a correction underway.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Having rested on Wednesday, Thursday’s requirement to resume the rally was fulfilled by quickly breaking to fresh highs and above 154-02 resistance, extending to 154-22 on the way to the 155-06 target.
Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
[Rolling coverage forward to Sep which trades at a .20-.25 premium to Aug…] Initially probing above 47.25 Thursday was retraced into the afternoon, still not suggesting a new rally leg has begun. This continues to leave 46.25 as the nearest sell signal.
Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The knee-jerk reaction to Thursday’s EIA report blipped-up to a fresh high at 3.11 and then dripped back down to the 3.05 buy signal. Closing above 3.11 would signal the rally is resuming, but I’m not convinced that the gap back down to 3.02 won’t be filled first.
Mid-day Update… Low gravity.
Skipping across resistance .
This morning’s plunge bounced back up to 2473.75. Breaking back under 2471.25 had signaled momentum reversing down this morning. Confirmed under 2469.25, it reached 2467.75. Extending 2 more points would have neutralized the oversold RSIs at the low. Extending down 4 points would have fulfilled the 2463.50 “unfinished business below.”
The noon hour recovered back up to the 2473.75 bounce high. That’s also this afternoon’s bias-up signal, and despite fluctuating around it, the signal didn’t trigger. This is a no-bias environment, and its 2473.75 bias-up signal should define the window’s upper-end. It’s still being overlapped.
Meanwhile, the gap back up to today’s 2474.00 open has been retested. Not arbitrarily, but from testing “lower prior highs” first. This won’t be left outstanding as “unfinished business.” The 2476.25 “new Globex trend extreme” must be retested eventually, too. Not necessarily today, although it could be.
Neutralizing an attraction above during a no-bias environment can produce a significant reversal. That’s what happened Tuesday morning when the bias-down target was met in a no-bias environment. That was 25-30 points lower. Regardless, back under 2471.50 would signal another attempt at probing fresh session lows.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Jul 21, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Expiration is Friday’s only event, so it might have unusual influence on price action. And that means WedEX could be unusually influential, too.
*Expiration
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2476.50 | 2473.75 |
| …would target | 2481.00 | 2478.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2469.00 | 2467.00 |
| …would target | 2464.75 | 2462.00 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.