Posts by Rod David
Mid-day Update… Running on fumes.
Mission now is to hold up through the close.
The morning’s bias environment was entered in reaction down from having tested its 2465.75 bias-up target.
The pullback reaction only attacked its 2462.00 pullback limit where any deeper would have reversed the trend down. Overbought RSIs attracted price back up to fresh highs.
The fresh highs tested this afternoon’s 2467.75 bias-up signal. At 1:20 and still at 1:30. So, this is now a noN-bias environment. Not a bias-up with a required target. And not a no-bias unlikely to probe higher.
noN-bias often behaves like a no-bias, and then like bias-up when the bias environment lapses. That’s if the bias environment is spent hovering around the bias-up signal. Often enough, noN-bias reacts sharply toward the other bias signal.
Back under 2465.50 would start to signal momentum reversing down. There would be potential down to the 2462.00 bias-down signal, but no requirement to hold it. The only requirement outstanding is for a new trend high close — maybe today.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Jul 20, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Thursday’s busy schedule is also high-profile, and contains reliably influential reports and events. The ECB policy statement is followed by Mario Draghi’s press conference which usually triggers a move or two. Any noticeable reaction to the pre-open Philly Fed survey is likely to repeat in reaction to the post-open LEI.
BOJ policy statement
6:30 PM ET
*ECB policy statement
6:30 AM ET
*Draghi press conference
6:45 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
*Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
8:30 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
*Leading Indicators
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
10-Yr TIPS Auction
1:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2470.50 | 2467.75 |
| …would target | 2474.75 | 2472.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2464.50 | 2462.00 |
| …would target | 2458.25 | 2455.50 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Last bullets.
Pre-open surge reaches highest target… BONUS VIDEO!
The narrow and largely undefined overnight range broke higher one hour before the open. Touching obligatory resistance at Friday’s 2461.25 high reacted back down to the overnight range’s downtrending resistance.
The trendline had become support, and its test launched a recovery to fresh highs confirming its breakout. Just recovering 61.8% of the breakout suggested already the pattern would extend higher. In fact, the open was greeted at or above Friday’s high and extended sharply from there.
This morning’s 2465.75 bias-up target had become the likely objective for any fresh high. An interesting RSI setup along the way essentially confirmed the target was in-play. [WATCH THE VIDEO(S) BELOW FOR A QUICK 4-6 MINUTE LESSON.] Its reaction down failed to renew the bias-up signal, but this is a bias-up environment.
Despite being a bias-up environment, extending higher this morning isn’t assured. The high’s overbought RSIs don’t require being retested since they developed during the open, but it’s still likely. Extending higher at all would next target 2469.50. Breaking under the 2459.75 bias-up signal when the bias environment is lapsing would trigger a deep intraday pullback underway. This is NOT the likeliest scenario, unless it were to resolve back in positive territory.
LESSON: 1-minute RSI diverging against a persistent 3-minute RSI.
Several minutes later…
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… So close you can touch it.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s pre-open drop extended down through the open to test Friday morning’s 2450.00 “lower prior highs.” A reaction up was recovered in time to narrowly avoid triggering the 2453.25 bias-down signal. Narrowly. Too narrowly. The 2448.25 bias-down target was tested anyway, but from the position of strength of not being timely. It was “no-bias trending,” doomed to failure, so the extra dip was recovered entirely. And then it was reversed throughout the session to attack the morning’s 2459.75 objective that had become “unfinished business below.”
Overnight action’s new info…
Tuesday’s recovery extended through the close. The Globex open spiked up to 2461.00 and then reacted down as quickly to 2457.75. Price action since then has ranged narrowly around the 2459.75 “unfinished business above,” which is now finished.
If, then…
Is today the day? There is an outstanding requirement for a new trend extreme close, and the market couldn’t be positioned any nearer to the highs. Probing fresh highs intraday is no assurance of maintaining, any more so than was yesterday morning’s probe of fresh lows. Knowing that’s what is meant by choppy ranging since Sunday night is what helped us to anticipate yesterday’s recovery from probing fresh lows. We should also recognize that NDX attacking its prior intraday highs is bringing all three major indexes into sync with each other so that an apogee can form.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2459.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2459.75 bias-up signal at 10:15.
Phonetic dictation…
good morning welcome it’s Wednesday it’s time for Wednesday’s morning market tour not a lot going on overnight really what is important about today happened yesterday and it didn’t even happen yesterday it is this late surge don’t even see it on the intraday you know the entire session was recovering basically from the mornings low in the mornings low wasn’t or betray you know there was a overnight depth actually emanated not too long before Ridge native not too long before the open early enough to have its own life but not well entrenched it did for sag app down that held a test of Last Friday mornings higher priorities balanced avoided triggering the 24th 5325 biased and Signal only narrowly though at 9 10:15 it was still within a tick not close enough to invoke the grace period at 10:30 the same thing hadn’t really despite trying hadn’t exploited that no bias triggered so that kept alive the potential for a fresh low and that fresh Lowe’s likely objective to retraced last Friday’s range to its support which also happened to be yesterday morning’s bias Town Target so not a bad ending any way to selling but the point is the rest of the session put into play or recovered and maintained what had been put into play that morning by holding the test of the biased and Signal the offsetting to the vice up signal at 5975 so the rest of the signal coming out of the and headband underway since Sunday is open and some ways since late Friday well the other thing that meant was that shopping is not that there was a lot of opinion out there a lot of extreme and pinion so not that that was going to be a false break in fact that’s not a false break yesterday morning that satisfied the target selling pressure was Matt it wasn’t to weekly sponsored same thing on the upside so this rain she doesn’t see it as well without the overnight but higher this morning it is not likely to be maintained and it will be just because we have unfinished business of that is a new but there’s no requirement for it and it’s the durability top Friday’s close not really concerned with that being filled because the it was created by opening within that range but now I haven’t filled the Gap back to Monday’s close yesterday if that’s not being exploited already today by extending down and it’s because we’re going to fill that Gap to the high another word retest the high gold fulfilled its 12:40 that’s the level that was fulfilled yesterday at the high up above and not even the first much too narrow in the context of the of what got us up here much too narrow to assign its own pattern to also the origin has to be an extreme so if we’re going to drop pattern or find a pattern in here and it should begin his me had an extreme so the extreme it has to begin at would be the overnight High and since then it’s just been down trending let’s compressor makes a difference optical illusion any other questions.