Posts by Rod David
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Potential for extending the current bounce up to 2433.00 is moot, now that Wednesday has closed above it. The low was essentially the open’s test of 2435.50, or 3 ticks lower. Intraday extended to attack 2444.00 and reacted down only 4 points into the close.
A second consecutive higher close isn’t required in order to extend higher eventually. But it would provide helpful confirmation that a subsequent pullback was only temporary. Already pulling back Thursday morning has considerable room before reversing momentum down.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday’s surge to the 1.1510-1.1525 target as a false breakout seemed to be confirmed by immediately dipping back to prior highs Wednesday morning. That was in reaction to a catalyst (Yellen’s remarks), and down to 1.1450 support. So, a second consecutive lower close is needed to confirm the trend reversing down.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Firming overnight and then surging in reaction to Yellen’s remarks Wednesday tested resistance at 1225.00. Closing back under 1219.00 would signal a move underway to retest the recent 1204.00 low, possibly to 1199.00.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Higher highs into Wednesday’s open tested recent highs, the highest levels above 15.55-15.60. while testing resistance that should now trigger a test of 15.55-15.60 as support for a durable bottom to form.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Yellen’s remarks Wednesday morning triggered a surge testing 152-20/153-00 that qualified it as relevant. Immediately pulling back to “lower prior highs” at 152-00 would likely form a durable bottom whose next rally leg is credible for launching a recovery. Extending higher first would target 154-02 where a deeper pullback would become likely.
Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Still overlapping 44.90 resistance at Tuesday’s close didn’t prevent extending higher later in reaction to API, and extending higher overnight for Wednesday’s open to gap up to 46.00. A slightly higher post-open high testing 46.45 reacted down on EIA, filling the gap back to Tuesday’s close. Under 46.00 would signal the low’s retest underway.
Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Wednesday morning’s dip tested Tuesday’s 2.98 opening gap up as support. It was pierced down to 2.97, which could serve as the pullback low. A complete retracement to 2.95 would be healthier before rallying.
Mid-day Update… Stuck up.
Still hovering off the morning high.
This morning’s 5-point reaction down from attacking 2443.00 has persisted through much of the morning’s bias environment and noon hour. Now the afternoon bias environment seems stuck.
The 2441.00 bias-up signal was tested — barely, but it has held. Back under 2437.50 would still credible for a deeper dip, to 2433.00 or 2430.50. Extending higher anyway would be no-bias trending and doomed to failure.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Jul 13, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Thursday is day-two of Fed chair Yellen’s two-day semi-annual congressional testimony. The Senate version is essentially the same, but also clarifies anything the Fed feels the market misinterpreted from the prior day’s testimony. Rule of thumb: Fade any knee-jerk reaction to lifting the embargo on her opening remarks. The day’s econ calendar is robust with not only that, but also PPI, another Fed speaker, and the 30-year auction
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
*PPI-FD
8:30 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
*Janet Yellen Testifies
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
*Charles Evans Speaks
11:30 AM ET
*30-Yr Bond Auction
1:00 PM ET
Treasury Budget
2:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
.
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2443.00 | 2441.00 |
| …would target | 2449.25 | 2447.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2436.50 | 2434.50 |
| …would target | 2430.00 | 2428.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.