Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2428.50 | 2426.50 |
| …would target | 2433.75 | 2431.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2419.00 | 2417.00 |
| …would target | 2413.00 | 2411.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Friday’s Employment Situation report was greeted at Thursday morning’s 2410.25 low, but not trending up. The gap up was only several points higher. And the morning ranged choppily sideways. All of which was more reflective of the ongoing downtrend’s overwhelming momentum, and less about the bottom finally being in.
The afternoon’s 2423.00 bias-up signal triggered officially, but only by a 1-tick margin. Piercing higher momentarily was random noise, and not trending. Its target won’t be considered “unfinished business above.”
Essentially, Friday’s session was full of optimism and fulfilling for optimists. But its major accomplishments were to delay the eventual fresh low, and to stretch the rubber band for starting the next move lower. A fresh low can still form a bottom if it were to develop correctly. Reversing up already Monday would not be credible without gapping up at least 12-13 points.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Join us for this weekend’s Saturday Review, which begins at 9:30am ET. Its link will be emailed early morning.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Reacting down to Friday’s Employment Situation report held the 1.1400 that has filled one gap above, and still needs to fill the high close’s gap at 1.1480 for a credible downleg to begin.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Probing briefly overnight under 1220.00-1224.00 to 1218.50 was trying to recover before Friday’s Employment Situation report triggered a drop to fresh lows at 1206.50, within $2 of another potential bottom.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
A flash-crash Thursday night caused a temporary spike down that fulfilled the decline’s 15.55-15.60 target. Reacting up to attack 16.00 into Friday’s open was reversed down to fresh lows under 15.35 through the morning. There is no active signal.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Lower lows Friday in reaction to the Employment Situation report weren’t so substantial to allow lowering the 152-20 reversal signal or its 153-00 confirmation.
Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Friday’s gap down to 44.90 extended sharply lower to test 44.25 by almost 50 cents. The backing-and-filling down to the 43.40 area has likely begun, so that a more durable bottom can finish forming.
Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Rallying overnight gapped up to what is now resistance at 2.95 was reversed down through Friday morning to fill the gap back to Thursday’s 2.88 close, still leaving the gap back down to Wednesday’s 2.85 close to be filled so that a rally can be credible.
Mid-day Update… Barely,
Advancing gradually.
Today’s gap up has extended. Fluctuating 2-3 points around the 2413.75 opening print broke higher when the bias environment began lapsing at 11:30. Testing 2424.00 into the noon hour then consolidated narrowly into the afternoon bias environment.
This afternoon’s 2423.00 bias-up signal triggered, barely, by a tick or two. It avoided triggering the grace period, barely, by a 1-minute 1-tick margin. And price soon probed higher, barely, attacking 2425.25 resistance and now fluctuating around the noon hour’s 2424.25 high.
Barely can be enough, and remaining in positive territory today is certainly a possibility. But sellers aren’t marginalized since the open didn’t gap up enough. We’re still monitoring for possibly repeating the recent pattern of intraday directional reversals. That’s difficult on a Friday, but it can be unstoppable if started.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Jul 10, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: No relevant or influential econ reports are scheduled for Monday.
Labor Market Conditions Index
10:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
TD Ameritrade IMX
12:30 PM ET
Consumer Credit
3:00 PM ET