Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2433.25 | 2430.50 |
| …would target | 2438.25 | 2435.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2424.25 | 2421.50 |
| …would target | 2418.25 | 2415.50 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapped down Monday under its 1.1450 pullback limit to test 1.1400 whose break would signal the trend reversing down. Filling the gap back up to 1.1475 first would make a trend reversal more credible.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Reacting up through the week avoided fulfilling the 1235.00 target that was only attacked during last Sunday’s “fat-finger” plunge. Sliding into the weekend extended down sharply Sunday night to fulfill the target, which was probed Monday morning down to 1220.50.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Last Sunday’s overnight “fat-finger” plunge had reacted up sharply from testing its 16.35 target, retracing entirely to test the 16.75 prior high up to 16.85 Thursday. But the trend never reversed up, and the weekend was greeted in decline. Sunday night’s plunge extended to retest the prior low, and trended deeper through the morning to attack 16.00.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Probing lower Sunday night needed to close above 154-02 to suggest the drop’s momentum had lapsed. But Monday morning probed fresh lows down to 152-28. Lower-prior highs from late-May offer potential for launching a bounce back up to 155-04.
Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Having extended Friday above Thursday’s test of the 45.25 target to 46.00, Sunday night also extended higher to test 46.85 Monday morning. And there’s room up to 47.00 before closing back under 46.00 would signal a quick temporary dip targeting 43.40.
Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s knee-jerk reaction up had been retraced to suggest the “lower prior highs” down to 2.95 would be tested so the bottoming pattern could complete. Friday’s dip had stopped 3 cents short before bouncing, but Sunday night gapped down to 2.95 and rallied through Monday’s open. Filling the gap back up to Friday’s 3.05 close reacted back down to attack 2.95.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Exceeding Monday morning’s 2435.50 bias-up target by 1 point through 10:15 renewed the bias-up signal. That’s more of a suggestion than a requirement, especially on a holiday-shortened session during a 5-day working holiday. Its reaction down formed a Symmetrical Triangle that broke sharply lower at noon down to its 2427.50 target.
A big snap back up was denied, despite testing “lower prior highs” down to 2426.50, and despite the drop being a knee-jerk reaction to a headline (re: ECB). RSIs were simultaneously oversold instead of diverging positively. Bouncing to 2431.00 resolved down to 2422.00 through the futures close.
Hold-short wasn’t overwhelmingly compelling, but could be considered with a bounce limit at either 2425.25 or 2427.50. Extending down at all would likely retest Friday morning’s 2418.50 lows, which offer little support if any, on the way down to fresh lows. Recovering Monday’s 2436.50 highs through any relevant timing window could instead end the two-week decline and rally back up to new highs.
HAVE A SAFE AND HAPPY INDEPENDENCE DAY!
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Jul 4, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: U.S. markets are closed Tuesday for the Independence Day holiday Globex trades through the noon hour, and then re-opens normally in the evening.
Globex close
1:15 PM ET
Globex normal open
6:00 PM ET
Post-open Review… Laurel-resting time?
Buyers entrenched, threatening to exploit it.
Extending above 2430.00 pre-open enabled gapping up to 2432.00. That extended gradually to 2436.50. Enough of that was maintained through 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal, next targeting 2440.00.
More so, the gap up trended up through the open. This creates an anchor that can help to attract price up in case of a reaction down. The renewed bias-up target won’t become “unfinished business above” if left outstanding. But the anchor is often recovered.
And there was a reaction down. A quick dip retraced all post-open gains down to 2432.00. An inflection point 1 point higher was probed no deeper than its first 3 minutes — in fact, the first bar probing the the inflection point was the probe’s low.
The dip has been recovered up to 2435.00. Any higher would start to signal the rally is extending again. But back under 2431.75 would signal the dip was becoming something deeper.