Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2425.50 | 2422.50 |
| …would target | 2431.25 | 2428.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2417.50 | 2414.75 |
| …would target | 2412.00 | 2409.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
One piece of “unfinished business above” remains outstanding at 2454.00. It was a bias-up target that triggered that afternoon. It’s likely to be retested soon after the current pullback ends.
But there’s no requirement for the pullback to end.
Meanwhile, Tuesday’s plunge down to 2416.50 only touched a prior low. That’s optimistically short of what constitutes an optimal test, let alone thorough. Especially when the next lower objective is only 1 points lower, or 2 points when including its room for noise that is likely to be tested.
There’s some potential for “lower prior highs” at 2412.00 to formulate a bottom, which would launch a retest of the highs. Otherwise, probing any lower would next target 2399.00.
Tuesday afternoon’s bias environment high printed very early at 2431.50. A lower high printed at 2427.50 as the bias environment began lapsing. Having trended down into the close, just recovering one prior high at Wednesday’s open could form a “session-long rally.” Optimally, the setup would gap up above the entire bias environment. Likely, the decline persists.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Favorable comments overnight by ECB Chief Draghi triggered a surge through the 1.1255 buy signal and the 1.1270 peak of Monday’s test of it, extending sharply higher to 1.1388. No second consecutive higher close would suggest a deeper pullback underway.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Sunday night’s plunge had been retraced considerably to 1253.80 by Tuesday’s open but not entilrely, still not yet testing the decline’s 1235.00 target either overnight or intraday. Closing higher Wednesday would be premature.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Sunday night’s plunge had been retraced almost entirely by Tuesday’s open up to 16.70, not yet having tested the decline’s 16.25-16.30 target intraday. Closing higher Wednesday is possible, but not optimal while still not having retested Sunday night’s low.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday’s night dip to the 156-20 pullback limit extended down sharply to open under 156-14 and to slide much deeper to 155-07. This tested the two-week old consolidation’s lows. Extending down immediately would be the product of new sponsorship, and so it would be credible for targeting 154-16. Not extending down immediately would be credible for recovering.
Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Monday night’s high already probed above Sunday night’s 43.65 high, making the attempt likely to extend higher intraday. Fresh highs up to 44.44 suggest the 44.90 bounce target is in-play.
Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Extending higher overnight to 3.06 had pulled back to open flat, then recovered back up to overnight highs. A second consecutive higher close Wednesday would confirm a bottom has been sealed.
Mid-day Update… Compensating for the delay.
Prior lows melt away.
So long as this morning’s bounce didn’t exit the bias environment above its 2441.00 bias-up signal, it would be only a temporary delay. 
And its 2426.00 bias-down target would be “unfinished business below.” The 2433.00 bias-down signal had triggered, and it wasn’t invalidated.
I don’t know what catalyst accounts for there still being any semblance of support at 2430.50, after having chipped away thoroughly at it last week. Regardless, the template indicated that returning to it would break sharply through it. That didn’t happen at the open, but it has happened this afternoon.
Testing fresh lows at the afternoon’s 1:20 bias timing window soon collapsed to 2421.00. Oversold RSIs at the low require at least its retest after bouncing. Which its reaction is now doing, back up to attack 2426.00.
A recovery today is unlikely under any circumstances, although it seems this afternoon’s drop is a reaction to headlines about delaying the Senate healthcare plan procedural vote. Not bottoming on the low’s retest would next be attracted down to 2415.50 and lower, potentially to 2399.00.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Jun 28, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Two Fed speakers between Tuesday’s close and Wednesday’s open aren’t likely to have a relevant influence on price action. But the morning’s Housing sector data can. So would a favorable reaction by Crude Oil to the EIA report.
Neel Kashkari Speaks
Tue 5:30 PM ET
John C. Williams Speaks
3:30 AM ET
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
International Trade in Goods
8:30 AM ET
Pending Home Sales Index
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
2-Yr FRN Note Auction
11:30 AM ET
7-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Janet Yellen speaks
1:00 PM ET