Posts by Rod David
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Friday’s reaction down from the 1.1255 buy signal to what had been the 1.1225 bounce limit was recovered entirely into Monday’s open. Trying to extend higher was sloppy, and not very successful. Now 1.1225 is a sell signal, and its break would target fresh lows.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday and Friday sessions had avoided extending their gaps up, but not fully retracing or reversing them to fulfill the pattern’s ultimate resolution. Sunday night’s “fat finger” plunge compensated for the delay, probing fresh lows. The decline’s 1235.00 target was only attacked and remains outstanding.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday and Friday sessions had avoided extending their gaps up, but not fully retracing or reversing them to fulfill the pattern’s ultimate resolution. Sunday night’s “fat finger” plunge compensated for the delay, probing fresh lows. The decline’s 16.25-16.30 target was met, but could be retested intraday before any buy signal is credible.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Still hovering at the extended rally’s 156-24 target broke higher Monday morning to 157-08. So long as 156-20 holds as support, the rally could extend up to 157-20 if not also to 158-20.
Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Probing Sunday night above the 43.40 buy signal was retraced before Monday’s open back under the buy signal. It was retested at noon, where price hovered into the afternoon. Extending any higher would target 44.90, albeit still needing one more dip to complete a bottom pattern.
Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Sunday night’s gap up above the 2.95 buy signal was maintained overnight, and then extended higher Monday morning to 3.02. A pullback has room down to 2.95-2.97 without reversing momentum down, although a second consecutive higher close Tuesday would make a pullback likelier to recover.
Mid-day Update… Stress test.
Bias-up target’s probe rejected, for now.
Gapping up to 2442.25 quickly extended through the 2443.50 bias-up target and held on to renew the bias-up signal. The setup is very reliable for extending higher through the morning, and also for printing its session high in the afternoon.
None of which mattered today.
Despite holding up through the first hour, price suddenly collapsed down to the 2438.00 bias-up signal. It was soon probed by 4 points, but recovered as the bias environment was lapsing. As it should — it was still a bias-up environment, so the bias signal should define window’s lower-end if tested.
The recovery has extended through the noon hour to 2441.50. The bias-up signal 1 point higher wasn’t touched. The recovery can extend back to and through the morning’s highs. Can, and should, so long as 2437.00 holds as support.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Jun 27, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Following Monday’s big misses in Durable Goods and Chicago Fed, the HPI and Consumer Confidence may be under stricter scrutiny for finding some justification of the recent rate hike.
John C. Williams Speaks
4:05 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller HPI
9:00 AM ET
*Consumer Confidence
10:00 AM ET
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
10:00 AM ET
State Street Investor Confidence Index
10:00 AM ET
*Patrick Harker Speaks
11:15 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
5-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2445.25 | 2442.50 |
| …would target | 2450.25 | 2447.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2438.25 | 2435.75 |
| …would target | 2432.50 | 2429.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Overcome.
Higher highs win out over pre-open challenges.
One-way relentless overnight trending is vulnerable to being reversed at the open. Greeting the new week with extreme sentiment is often a sentiment extreme.
Ignoring either challenge through the opening 15 minutes of volatility — maintaining the gap, if not also extending it — tends to extend the overnight trend.
That has happened this morning. And it was necessary to rally this morning, after the prior session’s buyers had failed to gain traction for their efforts.
This is also a bias-up renewed environment. The 2443.50 bias-up target was exceeded through 10:15, putting into play 2449.00-2450.00. Any higher would likely also fulfill the only “unfinished business above” at 2454.00.
Back under 2443.00 would start to signal a deeper pullback underway. There’s room down to the 2438.00 bias-up signal without threatening the bias-up environment. Reversing the trend down is now much more difficult this morning. And extended gaps up tend to print their session high in the afternoon.