Posts by Rod David
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Chipping away further at the 2430.50 back down to last Friday’s close remained vulnerable to breaking lower. But perhaps this Friday’s opening probe under it developed too quickly to attract sponsorship.
Amazingly, an 11-point rally up to 2439.00 attracted more sellers than did the open’s 5-point dip. The afternoon bias environment exit was already slipping, and then it stumbled down to 2431.00. Despite stopping optimistically short, that still qualifies as another test last Friday’s 2430.50 close.
2430.50 has been so thoroughly tested as support that at least some obligatory probe under it is likely, if not a new downleg to the 2415.00 area. Rallying prior to that would seem very suspicious. Especially a rally that doesn’t start by gapping up above Friday afternoon’s 2438.75 highs, since Friday’s buyers gained no traction.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
I’ll send the Saturday Review link in the morning, well before its 9:30 ET start time.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Rallying overnight retested the 1.1225 bounce limit that had held intraday. Gapping up to it Friday extended back up to 1.1255 instead of reversing down into a new downleg, which closing back under 1.1225 would now launch.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Only reacting down intraday from Thursday’s gap up didn’t prevent rallying overnight to gap up even higher. But the same template applied, even more so being a Friday, for only reacting down intraday. Which it did, but not nearly to any degree that would confirm momentum is reversing down.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Only reacting down intraday from Thursday’s gap up didn’t prevent rallying overnight to gap up even higher. But the same template applied, even more so being a Friday, for only reacting down intraday. .
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
No further upside objective or backing-and-filling needed before breaking under 155-28 would be credible for beginning to seal a top, and eventually launching a new downleg. Friday’s narrow ranging doesn’t endorse either resolution.
Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Restrained optimism overnight comported with Thursday’s similar behavior, which improved slightly off Wednesday’s low close and left no gap or other “unfinished business below.” Closing above Thursday’s 43.33 high would target 44.90, and create room for a little backing-and-filling after the weekend to complete a bottom, and potentially greet next weekend in rally mode.
Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s EIA reaction cleared the path for closing above 2.95 to seal a bottom. Friday’s inside day hovered under it, but didn’t trigger it, and didn’t extend the decline.
Mid-day Update… Getting positioned?
Hovering at bias environment extreme.
This morning’s no-bias signal had held a test of the 2428.50 bias-down signal, putting into play an offsetting test of the 2436.25 bias-up signal. Which was fulfilled.
Its test was likely to include 2437.50. Overbought RSIs there required a retest. that inhibited selling, which barely dipped 2 points.Fresh highs during the noon hour neutralized the overbought RSIs without creating another one.
Now we’re in another no-bias environment. This afternoon’s 2439.00 bias-up signal is being attacked to within 1 tick. If tested, it should define the bias environment’s upper-end. Hovering here into its exit could start ticking higher, and then rally into the close.
Otherwise, there’s still room down to the 2433.00 bias-down signal, all keeping within the no-bias environment. Not dipping soon would be less likely to break lower later — not altogether unlikely, sellers aren’t marginalized, but less likely.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Jun 26, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Monday’s Durable Goods is both high-profile and reliably influential to price action. Coming first thing Monday should enhance its impact. Neither of the two regional Feds has a track record for influencing price action, but could if their data confirm a surprise from Durable Goods or else diverge widely.
*Durable Goods Orders
8:30 AM ET
Chicago Fed National Activity Index
8:30 AM ET
Dallas Fed Mfg Survey
10:30 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
2-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2441.50 | 2439.00 |
| …would target | 2447.25 | 2445.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2435.25 | 2433.00 |
| …would target | 2429.75 | 2427.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.