Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2440.00 | 2437.50 |
| …would target | 2445.00 | 2442.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2431.25 | 2429.00 |
| …would target | 2427.00 | 2424.50 |
| Signal status:NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Did Wednesday’s buyers succeed where Tuesday’s buyers had failed? Tuesday’s late low filled the gap down to last Wednesday’s 2435.25 close. It was tested late and not rejected. Wednesday filled the gap back down to Friday’s 2430.50 close. It was done overnight, late-morning, and again in the afternoon. That’s much more time to have broken lower, if that were the market’s intent. Right?
One element still missing is the actual rejection. Buyers must produce a close back above a prior high to indicate that new sponsorship has arrived. Any shallower recovery attempt has succeeded only to chip away at support.
Thursday’s buyers could succeed where Wednesday’s buyers failed. Gapping up above Wednesday morning’s 2440.00 high could serve by proxy as if sponsorship had arrived already Wednesday afternoon. Otherwise, the pattern is vulnerable to already greeting the open probing fresh lows.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Firming Wednesday up to 1.1210 still has room up to 1.1225 while still being only a corrective bounce that remains likely to reverse into a new downleg.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Firming further Wednesday has now corrected enough for the decline to resume, yet to fulfill the confirmed breakout’s third lower close, and its next lower at objective 1235.00.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Firming further Wednesday has now corrected enough for the decline to resume, yet to fulfill the confirmed breakout’s third lower close, and its next lower at objective 16.25-16.30.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Firming slightly overnight stopped short of the 156-24 target before dipping Wednesday morning to touch the 155-28/155-30 pullback limit. Dipping first now allows an RSI comparison to be made while retesting the prior high on the way to fulfilling the target.
Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Blipping-up Wednesday morning in reaction to EIA barely touched the 44.20-44.90 bounce limit before quickly reversing down under Tuesday’s 43.00low to 42.05.
Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Initially firming Wednesday only touched the 2.95 bounce limit whose recovery was unlikely without a more substantial base first forming. Reacting back down to the 2.88 low is a start. Thursday’s EIA report isn’t being greeted from the position of strength that would have been reliable for launching a recovery, but rallying through the close would be credible.
Mid-day Update… Mudder.
Attracted back down to the lows.
The market doesn’t seem very comfortable rallying. That’s neither new nor surprising. This has been the market’s pattern at highs, and also the anticipation of its continued response to highs. Monday was a high, neutralizing the last outstanding structural requirement — a new trend high close. Direction reversed quickly.
This morning’s attempt to extend the overnight recovery wasn’t a new high. But it met the same discomfort that opened the window below. And now the afternoon’s bias-down has triggered under 2433.00.
This morning’s 2430.50 low is being retested. This afternoon’s 2428.50 bias-down target is in-play. It could be probed down to 2425.00 and still be in the context of only a pullback. Anything deeper would be recoverable, but with increasing difficulty. Back above 2436.25
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Jun 22, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Thursday’s calendar is busy, and high-profile, but not very influential. One exception is the post-open LEI. And if either pre-open report does get a price reaction, that should be duplicated in reaction to LEI.
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
FHFA House Price Index
9:00 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
*Leading Indicators
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index
11:00 AM ET
30-Yr TIPS Auction
1:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET