Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2435.25 | 2433.00 |
| …would target | 2440.75 | 2438.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2427.50 | 2425.25 |
| …would target | 2421.00 | 2418.75 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-DOWN | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Wednesday night’s decline was substantial, and it tested relevant attractions below. But nothing that required being neutralized. An attraction that required being neutralized was only attacked to within 3 ticks at the 2416.25 low. That takes care of that, for the rest of the day and a 16-point rally to attack 2433.00. But a lot of impatient buying is reflected in not fully testing the objective, while also piercing the overnight low by only 1 tick — while leaving outstanding a retest of last Friday’s oversold RSIs at 2412.50.
Friday afternoon’s bearish WedEX could become influential after the morning extends Thursday’s recovery. Or Friday morning could already have resumed the decline, before resolving down further. Being a Friday, the morning’s bias is likely to persist through the noon hour. And attacking this week’s lows intraday would be likely to break lower.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s spike up to the 1.1285 highs was retraced enough to greet the FOMC news back at or under 1.1255. The reaction retraced the morning’s upleg, extended down overnight, and gapped down Thursday to fresh lows testing 1.1133. While this likely fulfills the pattern’s requirement for a third lower close, it also likely launches a downleg targeting 1.1110 and 1.0995.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Probing the 1272.50 buy signal Wednesday had been productive enough to test 1281.00. But it originated too late to be reliable, and the FOMC reaction retraced it all. Trending lower overnight gapped down Thursday to four-week old lows under 1253.00. Unless 1266.25 were recovered, the trend is targeting 1238.00-1239.00.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s surge was retraced entirely after the close in reaction to the FOMC statement. Gapping down Thursday tested Tuesday’s Island at 16.70. Closing back above 17.00 would complete a Double Bottom, but the trend otherwise remains down.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Surging already to 156-05 before Wednesday’s FOMC statement was retraced to test critical support at 155-04, whose break would signal a retest of the range’s lower-end at 153-29, and probably also the range’s break lower.
Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday’s drop had filled the gap back to the prior Wednesday’s 45.29 open under all prior lows, and then closed lower. Closing lower Thursday forms a continuation pattern suggesting the decline is not yet nearing a bottom. Closing back above 46.20 would help resume the bottoming pattern.
Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The knee-jerk reaction to Thursday’s EIA report was a sharp rally from the new low close at 2.95 up to 3.06. Having originated from a new low close, the bounce is expected to be retraced. Meanwhile, the bounce does create extra room to expend selling pressure before it can further damage the chart, which allows for a bottom to form.
Mid-day Update… Premature bounce?
Morning’s new low recovers to yesterday’s low.
The open’s wider and wider ranging eventually included a retest of the 2416.50 overnight low. It was pierced by a single tick. Which was just enough to satisfy the pattern’s structural requirement for a new low.
Rallying 12 points from there to 2428.25 and higher doesn’t change whether other attractions below remains outstanding. This morning’s selling stopped optimistically short of fulfilling the first of it at 2415.50. Testing it this morning was already jeopardized by recovering 2421.50. Back under 2424.00 would already start signaling fresh lows are back in-play.
Meanwhile, the recovery could extend up to 2433.00. The longer that takes to develop — without breaking back under 2424.00 and 2421.50 — would leave less time to resolve down today. And that would open the door to bouncing further before tomorrow afternoon’s bearish WedEX becomes influential.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Jun 16, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Friday’s expiration has an unusual number of econ reports. Two are high-profile, but only Consumer Sentiment has a track record for influencing price action. The afternoon’s Fed speaker could get a reaction, too.
Quadruple Witching
BOJ policy statement
Housing Starts
8:30 AM ET
Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations
10:00 AM ET
*Consumer Sentiment
10:00 AM ET
*Robert Kaplan Speaks
12:45 PM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET