Posts by Rod David
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Friday still had not resumed the rally, despite Thursday’s pre-open warning short and not yettrying to probe lower. The rally isn’t required to extend, already having fulfilled the confirmed breakout’s minimum objective, but any fresh high above 1.1425 would be credible for extending higher.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday’s return to the 1317.00 original buy signal found only obligatory support before extending overnight to gap down Friday to 1307.50 prior lows and extend lower intraday to 1297.00. An immediate reversal up is unlikely, but any hesitation that appears to be bottoming would be credible for launching a recovery.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednedsay’s return to the original 15.75 buy signal did not prevent Thursday’s break lower, and Thursday’s attack on the two-week old opening gap down at 15.60 didn’t satisfy selling pressure. Extending lower overnight gapped down Friday under 15.55 and extended sharply lower to probe under 15.25. No immediate recovery is likely without first forming a bottom over 2-3 sessions.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Breaking under the pattern’s last relative low at 145-16 Wednesday had confirmed momentum reversing down, which quickly fulfilled its minimum target of retracing the entire pattern’s 145-00 low. Neutralizing its attraction Thursday didn’t prevent gapping down Friday to attack the next objective at 144-08 to within a quarter-point, albeit unlikely to hold as support.
Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Probing last Friday’s high overnight to attack 57.90 was retraced to open flat Friday, and firmed only briefly before reversing down sharply. The low filled the gap back down to Tuesday’s 55.60 close, but only hovered there instead of rejecting it or breaking lower. Stopping pessimistically short of thoroughly testing the gap does suggest it will be probed before a recovery can be credible.
Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The reaction to Thursday’s EIA report was absorbed and the rally was free to resume without further delay, which it did Friday by extending to a fresh high. Trending intraday to fresh extremes on Fridays in this product tends to extend coming out of the weekend.
Mid-day Update… Their best shot?
Post-open collapse holds the gap.
“Unfinished business” has been outstanding all week back up to Monday’s 2807.75 opening gap. 
No trend reversal would be very credible without first neutralizing the attraction above. Neutralizing the attraction above wouldn’t require reversing down.
The gap was filled soon after today’s open. Resistance there was likely to react down. A reaction down still could recover to resume rallying up to 2812.50 or 2817.50. The gap-fill’s reaction down wasn’t interested in higher attractions.
Trending back down through the bias environment reached its first support at 2796.00, whose influence caused a 45-minute consolidation. Resolving down soon reached its next support at 2787.50 — the 61.8% retracement of the structure containing yesterday’s cash session close. Its influence had more intent, reversing price up immediately and through the noon hour.
Extending to 2798.25 easily triggered this afternoon’s 2793.50 bias-up signal. Its 2800.50 bias-up target is in-play. Fresh highs above the bounce’s pre-1:20 high haven’t yet printed to confirm, but hovering there still suggests the uptrend remains intact. However, back under 2794.00 would signal momentum already reversing down.
Fridays are notorious for expending their influence in the morning. Whatever it accomplishes, or doesn’t accomplish, often creates the session’s extreme. This morning’s reaction down tested yesterday’s close, but hadn’t quite rejected it by noon when the bias environment had finished lapsing. Another downleg can’t be dismissed, whether or not preceded by 2800.50.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon March 4, 2019
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Monday morning’s lone report is high-profile, but not reliably influential unless it is surprising or confirms another recent report’s surprise.
Construction Spending
10:00 AM ET
TD Ameritrade IMX
12:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2793.25 | 2793.50 |
| …would target | 2800.25 | 2800.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2786.25 | 2786.75 |
| …would target | 2779.75 | 2780.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… The least it can do.
Monday’s gap filled. Is that all?
Monday’s 2707.75 opening print was above all other highs in trend.
If not extended, it would require being filled from below. Not arbitrarily, but after first dipping to test “lower prior highs.” Those lower prior highs have been tested since then, until last night’s rally greeted today’s open at 2803.50.
Post-open action extended higher relentlessly to 2808.25, neutralizing the “unfinished business” at 2707.75. Some resistance there was likely, although not necessary, and not necessarily substantial. But resistance there has pushed price down sharply to 2794.50.
While there is no longer unfinished business above, there is on requirement that neutralizing it now launches a new downleg. There’s also no requirement to extend higher, whether for a corrective bounce to 2803.50, or back to Monday’s highs up to 2812.50 or even to 2817.50.
Today’s sentiment can shift 180 degrees, multiple times. The only likelihood against reversing down would not come until this afternoon, if its bias environment were exited above the noon hour highs. The session otherwise remains vulnerable to probing lower lows.