Posts by Rod David
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Spiking up Wednesday to retest 1.1285 resistance at the highs was retraced to 1.1255 support, which must hold to avoid quickly fulfilling the lower close already required.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Barely recovering 1268.50 Tuesday wasn’t as strong as would have been recovering 1269.50, too
spike up at Wednesday’s open through the 1272.50 buy signal extended to attack 1282.00. It wasn’t all maintained coming out of the FOMC news. But a second consecutive higher close Thursday would confirm a probe above 1300.00 is in0-play.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up Wednesday to 16.90 created an island of Tuesday’s session. It also extended sharply higher to test 17.35. Filling two gaps along the way neutralized their attraction, and neutralizing the low’s oversold condition that could have been helpful to leveraging a reaction to the news. Regardless, closing higher again Thursday would confirm an upleg underway targeting 17.90.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The support test of 153-29 resolved up sharply Wednesday, surging 2 points to new highs at 156-05 ahead of the FOMC policy statement. No sell signal would be calculable at new highs. But closing back under 155-04 would signal that the rally isn’t gaining traction.
Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Having filled the Monday’s opening gap above at 46.49, last Wednesday’s 45.29 opening gap below became the new attraction. Spiking down quickly fulfilled it and consolidated at fresh lows around 44.55. Back above 46.20 would signal the low is in and momentum has reversed up.
Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Dipping back down to fresh lows Wednesday recovered back above prior lows intraday. That was retraced to produce a fresh low close, and to delay a bottom at least one more day.
Mid-day Update… They want to like it. Can they?
Defensively postured. Sort of.
A small capitulative leg completed this morning’s test of its 2433.00 objective. Its attraction below is neutralized. The reaction up tested 2436.00 and 2438.00 a couple of times each. An inflection point at 2437.50 was tested, but not triggered.
Anxiousness ahead of the 2:00 ET FOMC announcement is the likely culprit for only consolidating. Neutralizing the attraction below is not an optimal position of strength to greet the news. Upside potential remains intact anyway, due to the proximity to Friday’s 2443.50 high and having stopped pessimistically short of touching it pre-open.
The 2:30 Q&A by Fed chair Yellen will also be influential to price action. All of the day’s surprises should be resolved by the time of our 3:33 Market Wrap.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Jun 15, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Thursday’s calendar is very busy. More so, four reports are released simultaneously before the market. But only one of those has a track record for influencing price action. That reaction would have potential to repeat in reaction to the post-open reports. Before that is Bank of England and Swiss National Bank monetary policy statements.
SNB policy statement
3:30 AM ET
BOE policy statement
7:00 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
*Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
8:30 AM ET
Empire State Mfg Survey
8:30 AM ET
Import and Export Prices
8:30 AM ET
Industrial Production
9:15 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
Housing Market Index
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
Treasury International Capital
4:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2442.50 | 2440.00 |
| …would target | 2447.75 | 2445.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2435.25 | 2432.75 |
| …would target | 2429.75 | 2427.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Pushing it.
Pre-open recovery too much too bear.
The overnight rally had extended to 2442.25 when news broke the shooting outside Washington, D.C. Its 4-point reaction down to 2438.25 was reversed back up quickly. Too quickly, before any accumulative activity could develop. That triggered a warning in the chaRTroom.
It also triggered a reaction down. Friday’s 2443.50 high had been attacked to within 1 tick. Reacting down through the open has returned to the 2435.00 overnight low, now piercing it by 2 ticks.
Opening above the 2440.25 bias-up signal and not triggering it has put into play an offsetting test of the 2433.00 bias-down signal. Testing it before the afternoon FOMC events will be likely so long as interim bounces hold any test of 2438.00.