Posts by Rod David
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Jun 14, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: CPI is Wednesday’s only morning report having a track record for influencing price action. More so this month, along with Retail Sales, which could influence the afternoon’s FOMC policy statement or its credibility. Price action often becomes subdued while awaiting the FOMC policy statement. Then volatility expands considerably, and often predictably.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
*Consumer Price Index
8:30 AM ET
Retail Sales
8:30 AM ET
Business Inventories
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
*FOMC Meeting Announcement
2:00 PM ET
FOMC Forecasts
2:00 PM ET
*Fed Chair Press Conference
2:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2439.25 | 2436.75 |
| …would target | 2444.75 | 2442.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2432.50 | 2430.00 |
| …would target | 2427.00 | 2424.50 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Gap up maintained.
And briefly extended. But not uptrending.
The 2433.50 overnight high had reacted down pre-open to within 1 tick of this morning’s 2429.25 bias-up signal. The pullback was retraced entirely into and out of the open. It soon extended to 2436.00. And just as soon retraced the extension.
This creates an anchor. In case of a reversal down, the context ensures its complete recovery. And a reversal down remains possible, because the extension wasn’t maintained. The reversal down would become much less likely if the bias environment continues fluctuating around the 2433.50 — especially if it has already begun extending higher.
Higher highs were next target 2438.00, and then a retest of Friday morning’s 2443.50 high up to 2445.00. Otherwise, back under 2430.50 would initially target a test of yesterday’s “lower prior highs” at 2425.25 and lower.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Back to its old tricks.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Monday’s 4-point gap down to 2424.00 was within Friday’s range. It was within Friday’s afternoon range. As was Monday’s entire session. The morning’s bias environment was entered after diving nearly 11 points. The balance of the session narrowed the range, leaving the morning’s 2415.50 bias-down target outstanding. A late surge attacked the open’s 2427.50 high.
Overnight action’s new info…
Back under 2425.25 would have reversed Monday’s late surge. But it was only touched, and China monetary moves triggered a surge to 2430.50. Extending into and out of Europe’s opens ultimately touched 2433.50. Its reaction down has been trying to hold 2430.00 as support, which is a 61.8% retracement back down to yesterday’s highs.
If, then…
Oh, look. Probing above the prior session’s highs. Where have we seen this before? Oh, right. During the several sessions preceding Friday plunge. The probe so far has only developed overnight, but it hasn’t yet been rejected. Maintaining and extending a gap up above the 2428.00 area would be credible for extending even higher. Meanwhile, recall that Monday’s anxiousness created a pattern that often produces a false break in one direction, before reversing more substantially in the opposite direction. And last week’s pattern of failed rally attempts may not be dead. Not entirely dead. Maybe not even mostly dead. Not maintaining a gap up, or already rejecting it into the open would target Monday’s “unfinished business below” at 2415.50, and a retest of Friday’s 2412.50 low.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2431.00 would be likely to trigger the 2429.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2427.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Phonetic dictation…
good morning and welcome it is Tuesday its temper Tuesday’s morning market tour zigging instead of sagging their head there was a cell setup left last night and yes eyes closed pull back limit here at 2426 and really didn’t want to see anything else anything lower than as far as maintaining upside as far as delaying any short entry 24 25 25 which was touched the actual cell signal would have been triggered under 2423 who never rode the pullback limit basically held its room for noise down to 2525 and took off from there and took off from there not from there there but there news of some monetary Maneuvers by China so China’s moves are surprising when they happen it’s pretty closed Society or governmentally and so it really does shot the system and interesting I’m just something that I look at it looked at last night I was here alive when we were on our way up here and I was able to calculate what was the market subjective on the way down if we reverse down it was 1550 and what did the market close at yesterday last cash session trade basically was was it exactly 20 it was 25 Target that just needs to be triggered and when it’s triggered that buying or selling pressure is fulfilled and in this case the buying or selling pressure their relationship to each other there’s a likelihood of this pattern resolving down it resolved up so the likelihood is discounted that’s our 61 8th and there’s our resistance pretty interesting that’s not a direct relation to the bias parameter little bit it’s just a different pattern the pattern that would have been likely to break higher actually Target 3475 so if that patterns and play we’re heading to 3475 next thing the bias up Target otherwise this is just some overnight noise and remember the basic interpretation or analysis of yesterday’s pattern that it reflected anxiousness remember it developed entirely within not just within Fridays range but within Friday afternoons range so that is not calm that is not stability that’s anxiousness and as such it’s first break tends to be false if we break lower this morning which is still possible as I’ll put on a moment why it would break lower this morning we can hold a test of Friday’s low form a better bottom that is so it to the tick maybe even not entirely their butt hole the retest up Friday’s low and there’s over shoulder ice or there’s unfinished business from yesterday and we can form a better bottom to launch retest of Friday size break her first and yeah we can test Fridays high source over but our size there but but that would be the fall sprake likely to resolve down so is this overnight break break breakwill be heading back down to Friday’s Lowe’s so don’t count out seller’s yet not until the open or not until getting out of of 3350the pattern reflects buying and selling pressure or out of the luminary numbers in a little bit and we will look at other markets Aussie needs to or needed to From Below overlap test Wednesday 7555 got it done last night like to see that and breaking back now breaking back under the lower end of the range totally ignored and silver has only deteriorated further that was the problem with closing under 1609 or 1709 that was the maximum pullback potential to maintain actually this as just a fullback closing under 1709 which in fact we can gab Thunder the open Gap Thunder yesterday two maybe and threw it had one last line of defense but the the real guiding Factor here was either too close above 1709 or below it and having extended down extending down overnight unless there’s a close at least above 1690 there’s no by signal employer Gold’s a little weaker it held for a couple days this 1269 1238 5012 69-54 bacteria still regardless needs to close back of a 1277 to put into play retest of the highs and not just reaches to the highest new highs about 1300 but as I say overnight it’s a little bit weaker testing testing 12 6350 closed today above 12 6950 and 12 7250 preferably we won’t have to wait for 1277 / 1277 would still be critical confirmation it’s not really a cell signal here although closing Under 12 6850 is not foolish Longbine had an opportunity to close back up 154 16 yesterday which would have extended the bounce not just to retest the balance limit that was tested Thursday night at 1 5424 but a little bit higher to 155 o4 before work and then I said that entire morning balance really an afterthought balance Post open bounce was retraced entirely and back in the negative territory but not under a prior Lester Day still leaves a hold 150 329 at support its being probed overnight it was .
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2431.75 | 2429.25 |
| …would target | 2437.25 | 2434.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2424.00 | 2421.50 |
| …would target | 2418.00 | 2415.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.