Posts by Rod David
Post-open Review… The deepest rejection yet.
Post-open surge gets shut down, too.
The overnight rally had extended to probe yesterday afternoon’s 2432.75 high up to 2434.25. Both were above yesterday’s 2432.75 high. And all three reacted down.
Yesterday’s reaction down and the overnight pre-open reaction down measured about 4 points each. The post-open reaction down fell 7 points to 2426.50. And having held a test of the 2433.25 bias-up signal, an offsetting test of the 2425.75 bias-down signal was in-play. It was probed by 3 ticks.
The pre-open and post-open choppiness is a compendium of reactions to ECB and Comey headlines. Their influence is likely done. ECB members are at dinner. The Comey hearing has only just begun, but it is already over — all relevant revelations and reiterations are done.
There’s one more opportunity to reinstate the recovery being attempted by yesterday’s failed Pivot Reversal. If this morning’s no-bias environment exit isn’t yet attacking and then breaking either of the 2425.75-2433.25 bias signals, then this afternoon’s bias environment entry should. Anxiousness ahead of tonight’s headlines of Britain’s elections will try to prevent trending sooner, but expectations should be playing out soon after.
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2436.25 | 2433.25 |
| …would target | 2441.75 | 2439.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2428.50 | 2425.75 |
| …would target | 2423.00 | 2420.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Rolling up, or back over?
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
[This paragraph’s levels are all basis Jun.] Not for lack of trying, but for trying too little. We knew at Tuesday’s close that not gapping up Wednesday above 2434.25-2435.50would likely extend the decline to at least 2424.25. Wednesday’s 3-point gap up from Tuesday’s 2428.75 cash session close extended to test Tuesday morning’s 2434.25 highs. The prior highs held, and the noon hour collapsed to 2424.00. The balance of the session rallied back to the morning’s high, and almost formed a Pivot Reversal except for not maintaining its fresh high.
Overnight action’s new info…
[This paragraph’s levels are all basis Jun.] Globex action initially hugged Thursday’s last-minute reaction down to 2430.50 but never even pierced it. Firming greeted Europe’s opens back up at Thursday’s last-minute 2435.00 high. Fresh highs eventually developed, now probing Tuesday’s late high by 1 point.
If, then…
[At this morning’s open, the front-month rolls forward in ES to Sep to Jun. Going forward, all levels are quoted basis Sep, trading at a 2.00-2.50 discount.] Forming all but the last element of a setup can have the opposite resolution. So, missing Wednesday’s chance at a Pivot Reversal had a chance to resolve today as bearishly as it could have been bullish. Market Wrap addressed why that might not be a problem today — the late reaction down wasn’t too late to be credible, but it was too shallow to prevent resuming the rally overnight. And it seems the rally has, in fact, resumed overnight, targeting “unfinished business above at 2436.00, 2437.75, and at least one more new trend high close. Pre-open ECB headlines must still be navigated, and then ex-FBI director Comey’s Senate committee hearing. Regardless of the catalyst, failing to gap up would put yesterday’s late failure back in control, with potential down to 2419.25.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters, now available basis Sep] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2435.25 would be likely to trigger the 2433.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2431.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Phonetic dictation…
good morning welcome welcome back it is Thursday it’s time for Thursday’s Morning Market or it is expiration week upcoming one week prior to Thursday morning prior to expiration monthly or quarterly Express rolls right here June Now set overnight will be rolling for updating the and done except for the clothes which didn’t maintain its probe above the Morningside that every single element was done without that final element often makes a set up in this is true of any setups in my work off and makes it set up as sentimental extreme to one and One Direction the opposite direction that it would have been in other words this would have been pretty bullish except for that final element which now makes it pretty Parish that’s not always the case and we had one clue to that that I want her to close to that that I discussed yesterday it made me suspicious about the rejection even though the rejection came into our the reaction down the failure to actually fulfill that setup came and time it was before coming within 3 minutes of the cash and close so it was real price action it wasn’t really slow and by the time we get to the today power throws a wrench in this works I’m trying to recover then yes a slow doesn’t have to be retested but probably will be down to 24 1925 used to be 2421 21 15 days June now 1925 basis coming out momentarily with the.
Signals for ES on June 7, 2017
Already having signaled a multi-session pullback, the template offered confidence to early-entry. The morning’s sell signals began at 2431.50, and the noon hour’s plunge fulfilled the pattern’s 2424.00 target at its low. A buy signal wasn’t identified immediately, but it still produced almost 5 points before the close.
[s2If current_user_is(s2member_level0)]
Why not sign-up to see me annotate the next chart in real-time? Take your Free Trial here.
[/s2If]
Morning Bias – JUN
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2436.25 | 2435.75 |
| …would target | 2441.75 | 2441.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2428.50 | 2428.00 |
| …would target | 2423.00 | 2422.50 |
| Signal status: waiting for trigger | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.