Posts by Rod David
Post-open Review… Treading water.
Post-open firming lacks enthusiasm.
The overnight rally up to 2433.25 had reacted down to attack 2428.00. It was recovered almost entirely before the open, and then probed up to 2434.50 post-open.
That’s still 2 ticks short of the bias-up signal. Which didn’t trigger. So, an offsetting test of the 2426.50 bias-down signal is not in-play. Not officially.
But our scenario already suggested that not gapping up above yesterday’s highs would remain vulnerable to fresh lows. Extending higher now would need to probe above the untriggered bias-up signal, which would be doomed to failure.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Firm, not firm.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Tuesday morning’s 2432.00 bias-down signal barely avoided triggering, late, after testing its 2426.50 bias-down signal overnight and attacking it post-open. An offsetting test of the morning’s 2438.25 bias-up signal became “unfinished business above.” It was ignored by choppy ranging through the afternoon bias environment, which broke higher at its exit. But only shallowly to 2435.75, and briefly before the final hour plunged 8 points to test 2428.00.
Overnight action’s new info…
Globex action began by firming, and rose steadily up to 2433.25. Its trending broke lower into and out of Europe’s opens, attacking Tuesday’s late test of 2428.00. Diverging positively on its retest enabled a bounce to 2431.50, which has since extended another point.
If, then…
Gapping up sufficiently this morning would overcome buyers not gaining traction yesterday. But the 2434.25-2435.75 trigger hasn’t even been attacked. Currently trading around unchanged, almost any post-open weakness would be credible for extending down. Even without triggering bias-down, the pattern is vulnerable to fresh lows under 2426.50 to 2424.25 and probably also to 2421.50.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2429.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2426.50 bias-down signal at 10:15.
Phonetic dictation…
good morning and welcome it is Wednesday and San for Wednesday’s morning market tour and not a whole lot going on there was certainly potential overnight to extend down yesterday’s late plunge Final hours plunge actually can see it over here on the left had tested 2428 or Pierce to buy a tick it’s balanced averaged positively and that produced a little bigger balance right to resistance but rather than resume the decline which was vulnerable to overnight infirmed I was watching this world time was able to track patterns uptrending support broke other inflection points trigger but they haven’t been very productive but they weren’t very productive well this one was productive but essentially the inflection points we’re not very productive in fact they were the they were the opposite of productive as in productive in the opposite direction they seem more to have delayed in other words it would be more bullish and if we were looking at this pattern this market right here he have in the interim rather than attacking yesterday’s Lowe’s overnight it had probed yesterday’s loves overnight this would then be much better position to Rally I would suspect this would be much higher at this moment as well and being my tire would be much more helpful to the rally because this is the area 3425 3550 this is the area that needs to be recovered through the open in order to offset the fact that yesterday’s buyers gained no traction it’s not too far away from that there’s plenty of time news on its way but plenty of time to get back out if started pretty much now it started later trying to fresh overnight I would be weakened and sponsorship starting to roll over in case 3525 I would be looking for the delay alright last thing is if bias down is avoided this morning is bias down signal which is 2650 if that’s avoided I don’t think that would prevent necessarily trending down anyway probing temporarily fresh loves during the no bias environment just one more opportunity to trap we can and shorts alright and it’s not a position of weakness is not being created from a position of weakness couple consecutive higher closes would have been would have qualified as a position of strength but if there’s a knee-jerk reaction down at expected to recover and meanwhile there’s certain potential to Simply react Tire natural gas for tomorrow and it’s extending a little bit higher up to this resistance of what was pretty relevant support on the way down basically 309 leaving a gap outstanding I had a bit CIA that is a position of weakness when that’s not a solid base .
Signals for ES on Jun 6, 2017
Monday night’s protracted decline had touched the morning’s 2426.50 target. Post-open action stopped short of touching it before reversing up more than 7 points. Ranging sideways until a buy signal triggered that produced new highs, of which 4 points were caught by a signal related to the afternoon bias environment exit. The moves rejection fell 8 points, of which 5 points were caught.
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Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2435.75 | 2435.00 |
| …would target | 2440.75 | 2440.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2427.25 | 2426.50 |
| …would target | 2422.25 | 2421.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Tuesday afternoon’s bias environment began lapsing at 2:30 by surging to fresh post-open highs. Resistance at 2434.25 was quickly probed up to 2435.75. Nothing substantial, and the final hour’s entry didn’t budge any higher. Here’s why: the market collapsed through the 3:10-3:20 proxy window, and into the 3.37 position-squaring window. The balance of the session ranged sideways at 2428.00.
Every attempt to break lower intraday would have had one objective in-play — to retest the morning’s 2426.50 bias-down target that had held the overnight drop. It would have easily held if tested post-open, instead of only being attacked to within 2 ticks. Now its test would likely probe lower to compensate for the delay. Candidates continue to be 2424.25 and 2421.50.
Only gapping up Wednesday above 2434.25-2435.75 would be credible for marginalizing the pullback. Any less opening strength would be likelier to reverse back down to fresh lows.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.