Posts by Rod David
Signals for ES on Jun 1, 2017
Gapping up Thursday didn’t extend higher immediately, but the morning’s bias environment never probed back under the open’s low. that leaved the bias environment’s 11:30 exit vulnerable to a breakout at 2417.50, which extended almost relentlessly to its 2426.50 target. A late buy signal was too late to qualify for a “hold-long overnight” setup, despite extending through the close.
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Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2431.50 | 2430.50 |
| …would target | 2436.75 | 2435.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2423.50 | 2422.50 |
| …would target | 2418.00 | 2417.00 |
| Signal status: INVALIDATED NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Thursday’s late breakout left outstanding unfinished business below at 2408.00. Extending higher fulfilled the next higher objective above 2415.00 which had been defining the past week’s ranging. Probing intraday above 2424.25 was still being tested as support through the entire afternoon’s bias environment and final hour. That is, until the position-squaring window, which momentarily probed the room for noise at 2428.00 by 10 ticks. Confirming the close on Friday would put into play substantially higher objectives.
The afternoon’s ranging up to the afternoon’s 2426.50 bias-up target wasn’t an optimal or decisive break above 2424.25, not until the final minutes that surged aggressively. And optimistically ahead of payrolls. So, closing higher again for confirmation would be helpful — not for the next objective’s setup, but for being a new trend high close on a Friday. There’s otherwise no intraday timing required for actually trending back down, but trending back down is the likely bearish setup, and not just avoiding confirmation above 2424.25.
The impending pre-open Employee Situation report was an excellent opportunity for cautious backing-and-filling. Instead, the report is being greeted optimistically, and vulnerable to a knee-jerk reaction down or to rejecting a knee-jerk reaction up. Regardless, a top won’t be indicated without closing back within the past week’s range.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Holding the bearish pattern’s 11255 bounce limit Wednesday resolved by gapping down Thursday, but not deteriorating much intraday despite being free to resume the decline and leave no “unfinished business above.”
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Sliding overnight and back into the failed Ascending Triangle gapped down $10 to prove the relevance of 1277.00 resistance that was attacked Wednesday to within 2 dimes. Probing a little lower intraday was recovered back above the open, which suggests that filling the gap back up to Wednesday’s 1265.00 close will try to inhibit the pattern’s collapse.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Trending down sharply overnight once proved that Wednesday’s intraday recovery had held resistance and neutralized the upside attraction by filling the gap back up to Tuesday’s close. The overnight low held post-open retests that launched an intraday recovery. Friday’s Employment Situation report is being greeted from a position of strength for having a gap outstanding above.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Sill no reason to much delay extending higher, although Wednesday’s rally did create some room for constructive backing-and-filling. An overnight dip essentially held “lower prior highs” and recovered back up to the opening print, but no higher intraday as the balance of the session ranged.
Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Back under 48.15 would have resumed the decline. But Thursday’s reaction to the delayed EIA report was more intent to test the 49.25 sell signal as resistance, if not also to fill the gap back up to Tuesday’s 49.65 close. Closing above 49.85 would still be credible foe launching a rally.
Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Two consecutive sessions of probing sharply lower fresh lows and bouncing shallowly overnight into Thursday’s open didn’t prevent a negative knee-jerk reaction to the EIA report from probing under 3.00. The confirmed breakout’s minimum third lower close requirement is satisfied, but no bottom is forming.
Mid-day Update… Blow-out.
Noon hour rally, target nearly met.
This morning’s 2416.50 bias-up signal held through 10:15 to avoid triggering, which put into play an offsetting test of its 2408.00 bias-down signal. Never happened. In fact, the opening 15 minutes 2412.75 low was never touched again.
2416.50 still defined the bias environment’s upper-end. Until it started lapsing. Then a breakout compensated for its delay. Another 2 points were added between the noon hour exit to 2425.50, and the afternoon bias environment entry at 1:30. It has improved to within 3 ticks of the 2426.50 bias-up target.
Reversing down immediately is possible. This pattern’s top remains vulnerable if not also likely to appear abrupt in retrospect. That turn could take a little more time to develop than this, but it’s not required. Meanwhile, closing today above 2424.25 (and confirmed tomorrow) would signal a much bigger rally leg underway — despite the recent narrow range not forming an optimal base.