Posts by Rod David
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri March 1, 2019
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Friday’s post-open reports are all reliably influential to price action, which helps to keep things active ahead of the weekend. The noon hour’s Fed speaker will help in that regard, too.
Personal Income and Outlays
8:30 AM ET
Personal Income and Outlays
8:30 AM ET
*PMI Manufacturing Index
9:45 AM ET
*ISM Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET
*Consumer Sentiment
10:00 AM ET
Raphael Bostic Speaks
12:50 PM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2795.25 | 2795.50 |
| …would target | 2802.75 | 2803.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2787.25 | 2787.50 |
| …would target | 2780.25 | 2780.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Chop and slop.
Opening volatility fails to agree on a direction.
Recovering from the 2781.75 overnight low go to 2792.50 before the open. Dipping into and out of the open tested the 2788.00 bias-down signal. Its reaction pierced the pre-open high, and dipped back down to the post-open low.
The post-open low’s retest got to 2784.25. Another big bounce managed to overlap the 2788.00 bias-down signal at 10:15 to invoke the grace period. Like the open’s round trip, another dip to 2784.25 recovered in time to overlap the 2788.00 in time to trigger noN-bias.
Not bias-down, targeting 2781.50. Not no-bias, targeting an offsetting test of the 2794.00 bias-up signal. But noN-bias, able to fluctuate without intent. Choppy and sloppy. Be careful trading this morning’s pattern, which remains within the range and without an objective or limitation.
It’s not quite a “dry cleaners morning,” but still not for everyone. Meanwhile, here’s a video of this morning’s open when I discussed the alternative strategy of fading inflection points.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Not so fast.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Tuesday night’s drop to 2780.50 had stabilized 7 points higher, but that was still under Tuesday’s close and in negative territory. A post-open surge to 2792.50 essentially erased both, but only momentarily before collapsing to test the next lower objective at 2777.00 thanks in part to China trade headlines. The objectives test and retest were isolated to the bias environment, inhibiting more sponsorship for the day. The balance of the session rallied up to 2796.25, back in positive territory and above the open’s initial high. The cash session close was still overlapping Tuesday’s 2791.50 open and close, part of the problem that had led to Tuesday night’s decline.
Overnight action’s new info…
Post-close action had extended another point up to 2797.25, which the Globex open quickly rejected on the way back down to 2790.00. Hovering there shallowly through midnight began accelerating the pullback to attack 2781.50 into and out of Europe’s opens. RSIs diverged positively to enable a bounce that has been testing and retesting 2788.00.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Yesterday’s recovery had stopped short of levels that would ensure extending higher without delay. But it recovered enough to allow room for a reaction down to be only a temporary pullback, without yet extending the decline to 2754.00. The overnight drop so far is contained entirely withing yesterday’s range, and nothing yet requires probing either end of it. But both bias-down parameters have been attractive, and the 10:15 resolution to their test might be the next signal either way.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2791.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2788.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2784.25 would be likely to trigger bias-down. Exiting the open under 2780.50 would be likely also to exceed the 2781.50 bias-down target through 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal.
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2798.00 | 2798.00 |
| …would target | 2805.25 | 2805.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2787.75 | 2788.00 |
| …would target | 2781.25 | 2781.50 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.