Posts by Rod David
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s narrow ranging didn’t reassert the uptrend, which price action through Tuesday had suggested was topping and at least ready to correct back down.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday’s post-close dip to 1252.00 was probed overnight but then retested Wednesday morning. Closing under would confirm the bounce is not extending higher.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
After failing to confirm Monday’s breakout attempt, Tuesday night’s dip filled the gap back down to last Wednesday’s Island. It was largely recovered before the open, but not reversed up, leaving no signal.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
With little excuse to further delay resuming the rally to 155-13, Wednesday’s initial dip to the range’s lower-end could have been defensive posturing ahead of the afternoon’s FOMC minutes release. The reaction didn’t extend up, so the patern still needs positive close to at least confirm the basing intends to resolve up.
Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Tuesday’s close ultimately did fulfill the confirmed breakout’s minimum requirement for at least one fresh high close. That greeted Wednesday’s EIA from a position of strength, which reacted up to a fresh high at 51.88. The gain was retraced through the close, suggesting the upside momentum had lapsed.
Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Wednesday’s immediate break under 3.21 was recovered to avoid confirming the target at 3.11 and lower is again underway.
Mid-day Update… Calm before the calm.
Extremely narrow range.
The open’s blip-up to 2400.50 reacted down immediately to 2397.50, and then eventually to 2396.75. Ultimately, the 2399.00 bias-up signal holding its test put into play an offsetting test of the 2391.00 bias-down signal. That has become “unfinished business below.”
It’s difficult to snap back down without first popping up vigorously. So, it’s difficult to give the downside attractions — including 2393.50 — much near-term credibility. The minimum structural requirement was fulfilled by probing yesterday’s high, for however briefly. But sponsorship is missing all around.
FOMC Minutes will be released shortly. It might be the catalyst for triggering trending, or for triggering a false break that does snap back in the opposite direction. Any trending that begins during this afternoon’s no-bias environment is likely to be retraced.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu May 25, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Thursday’s busy calendar is actually very light on influential reports, but Jobless Claims is high-profile. The mid-morning Fed speaker does offer potential for influencing price action.
Neel Kashkari Speaks
Wed 6:00 PM ET
Robert Kaplan Speaks
Wed 6:00 PM ET
International Trade in Goods
8:30 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
*Lael Brainard Speaks
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index
11:00 AM ET
7-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2402.50 | 2401.00 |
| …would target | 2408.00 | 2406.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2397.25 | 2395.75 |
| …would target | 2392.00 | 2390.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Holding up, but held down.
Blip-up retraces back into the range.
Trending up this morning all but required gapping up. For starters. The open overlapped yesterday’s highs down to 2399.25 and touched a fresh high at 2400.50. Extending higher would have been credible, but was prevented by reacting down 3 points.
Which made dipping back down to the range’s 2395.00 lows likelier. Probably down to 2393.50. And also an offsetting test of the 2391.00 bias-down signal, having held a test of the 2399.00 bias-up signal.
That barely tested 2397.00 before bouncing again to retest the 2399.00 bias-up signal. Recovering it through 10:30 would have invalidated that it had held at 10:15. Trending up this morning would still be possible, but still not durably without gapping up.
2399.00 wasn’t recovered at 10:30. Still overlapping it doesn’t qualify for invalidating no-bias. The 2391.00 may be left outstanding to become “unfinished business below.” But potential to briefly probe fresh highs up to 2405.00 can’t be dismissed.