Posts by Rod David
Saturday Review’s recording (for 5/20/17) …A pivotal week explained.
It’s not so much that this week’s action was complicated. But it was somewhat complex in all of its features that relate to my methodology. New high, premature passively bearish WedEX, actively bearish WedEX, trend change, correction… and more. So, this weekend’s Saturday Review did spend almost 45 minutes describing those predictive features. Knowledge, sorry!
But in the end — that is, in the end of the market analysis — we had identified the likeliest scenarios for Sunday night and Monday’s open. Their likeliest resolutions, and as important, the consequences of price action behaving differently. We’re fully prepared to consider trades for the coming week. And also familiar with the relevant price points and patterns to monitor.
In the actual end — the end of the recording — we weren’t so prepared. Internet connectivity was inexplicably lost, as I was in my final sentence of instant chart analysis of the final stock that was requested to review. Inexplicable, because it was not an outage and a reboot cured it. Anyway, that was up to the 56-minute mark, which I hope you find more interesting than the subsequent 7 minutes of dead air.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
AAPL, NFLX, GOOGL, FB, CMG, AMD
[transcript unavailable]
Saturday Review Link
Be sure to join us by 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review. After discussing the bigger picture and gaming out strategies for playing next week’s likelier opening setups, we’ll do instant analysis of any stock charts that you request… See you there!
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2387.75 | 2386.50 |
| …would target | 2393.25 | 2392.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2378.00 | 2376.75 |
| …would target | 2371.50 | 2370.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Friday afternoon’s behavior seemed at first to have forgotten about the bearish WedEX influence. The bias environment was entered just above the noon hour’s entry. Bias-up triggered. And higher highs were probed. If not for a headline (Russia probe reaches current White House official), then perhaps the session’s uptrend would have extended.
But the headline’s reaction plunged 10 points. More important, the reaction wasn’t retraced back up, not meaningfully, and not above the noon hour’s entry. So, the bearish WedEX was productive.
Was it WedEX, or was it the headline? The reaction down could have been retraced, at least to close back above the noon hour’s entry. Weak-handed sponsorship would have been absorbed. But this dip was suppressed into the close.
Gapping open Monday above Friday afternoon’s high would serve by proxy to undermine the bearish WedEX, and separately also form a “session-long rally” setup. Gapping up, and trending higher through the open. Otherwise, regardless of “unfinished business above” now outstanding at 2389.50, bearish WedEX is likely to be more influential Monday morning.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
REMINDER: I’ll email this weekend’s Saturday Review link in the morning, it starts at 9:30am ET.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday’s dip that filled the gap back to Tuesday’s close had held its support. Rallying overnight gapped up to and through Thursday’s high to probe fresh highs. There is no reversal signal.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Rejecting Thursday’s intraday probe above the 1261.50 “higher prior low” had only signaled upside momentum was lapsing, but not that it was necessarily reversing down. Friday’s narrow ranging didn’t fill that void.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Rallying overnight more than a dime above 16.75 resistance had stopped several cents short of touching Wednesday’s Island. Still, closing back under 16.75 and lower would be helpful confirmation that the reversal down is in-play.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Maintaining the rally’s momentum requires holding the 153-11 pullback limit, which was attacked to within 1 tick Friday morning. There’s still room for a lower low at 152-26, but that wouldn’t be optimal for resuming the rally in the near-term.
Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Two separate nights’ dips to 48.05 had been recovered up to 49.50 before extending higher to attack 50.50 Friday. The gap up helps to prevent immediately reversing the trend back down, but a second consecutive higher close Monday is still needed to suggest a durable breakout is underway.
Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s gap up to and through 3.21 reached resistance at 3.27, which has no bearish excuse not to reject without further delay and to resume the decline targeting 3.11 and lower.