Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2370.50 | 2369.00 |
| …would target | 2377.75 | 2376.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2359.25 | 2358.00 |
| …would target | 2353.25 | 2351.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Thursday afternoon’s probe above its 2366.00 bias-up signal came after failing to trigger it. That’s “no-bias trending” and it’s doomed to failure. Wednesday afternoon’s break under its 2369.75 bias-down signal was also no-bias trending. It was unusually productive, ultimately extending down 25 points to the overnight low. But doomed is doomed. And it was retraced entirely Thursday afternoon.
The no-bias trending retracement was itself done by no-bias trending. Unlike Wednesday, Thursday’s no-bias trending was retraced already into the close, through 2363.50 to 2362.00.coming out of it. But there are other bearish influences. For example, often the no-bias trending’s retracement returns to the 1:20 print, which on Thursday was 2360.00. Also, Thursday’s second consecutive close under 2379.00 has confirmed a trend change, requiring at least an eventual third lower close. And the WedEX signal suggests it will influence Friday afternoon bearishly.
Having trended down into Thursday’s close, gapping up above the afternoon’s 2375.00 bias environment high would form a “session-long rally” setup. That wouldn’t negate the confirmed trend change signal, but it could invert the bearish WedEX. Otherwise, morning strength would likely resolve into a new downleg.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday wasn’t at all assured of extending the trend like Wednesday was almost certain to do (and did). Probing slightly higher overnight was retraced to gap down slightly Thursday. Ultimately retracing all of Wednesday’s rally filled the gap back down to Tuesday’s close. Wednesday night’s 1.1188 can be retested if 1.1080 now holds as support.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Overnight probing of fresh highs up to 1265.00 was retraced back under 1261.00 support. Closing under 1258.50 now suggests the rally’s momentum has lapsed, if not also that momentum is reversing down.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping down Wednesday to 16.75 formed an Island of Tuesday’s range. Extending down attacked the 16.40 sell signal, whose break would target 15.95. The Island would help to trigger a recovery — if it isn’t already preventing Friday from extending down.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Probing fresh highs up to 154-13 didn’t extend higher, and instead fluctuated narrowly around Wednesday’s 153-24 close. A pullback has room down to 153-11 or 152-26 while still being likely to resume the rally.
Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Tuesday night’s dip to 48.05 was retested Wednesday night, and Wednesday morning’s recovery up to 49.50 was repeated Thursday morning. Ultimately holding the 48.90-49.30 range was also repeated, as no new signal emerged.
Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up slightly ahead of Thursday’s EIA report was reversed back down. The three-day drop didn’t resume as price ranged narrowly around 3.21.
Mid-day Update… Still stewing it over.
Open’s rally has yet to extend.
This morning’s 2368.25 bias-up target was attacked to within 2 ticks. It did not become “unfinished business above.” Attacking yesterday afternoon’s 2369.75 bias-down signal to within 2 points didn’t help it attract price the rest of the way, so its unfinished business above remains outstanding.
Narrow ranging broke lower when the morning’s bias environment began lapsing. The noon hour was entered testing this afternoon’s 2357.50 bias-down signal. Choppy ranging didn’t trigger it, and this is now a no-bias environment.
But like yesterday afternoon, the bias-down signal is still under attack. That had made us suspect a no-bias trending break was coming then. And it makes us suspect another one is coming now. First things, first — it would be triggered under 2358.25, targeting the 2350.00 area. Back above 2362.50 would start to signal a rally more likely into the close.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri May 19, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: An unusual Friday with no morning economic reports. That alone gives the Fed speaker more potential impact. More so, his comments come just before the open. And he’s known for being dovish.
*James Bullard Speaks
9:15 AM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
*John Williams Speaks
1:40 PM ET