Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2403.25 | 2401.50 |
| …would target | 2407.75 | 2406.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2397.50 | 2396.00 |
| …would target | 2392.75 | 2391.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Buyers stabbed in the back AND front.
Pre-open surge repels reinforcements.
Greeting the open at 2404.00 blipped-up to within 2-3 ticks of the 2405.00 attraction.
Its immediate reaction quickly slid 4 points down to 2400.50. Still testing the 2401.00 bias-up signal up to 2403.00 invoked the grace period.
That was also a test of yesterday’s lower prior highs. But its first reaction up wasn’t exploited. This didn’t make resolving down any likelier. It did make a resolution down likelier to be substantial.
And it resolved down. No-bias was triggered, putting into play an offsetting test of the 2392.75 bias-down signal. Already, the 2396.25 overnight low is being retested.
The setup at yesterday’s close was vulnerable to reversing down at any time, but probably not without first rejecting a fresh high. Both parameters are playing out, albeit on a smaller scale. Recovering from fresh lows to probe fresh highs remains likely.
Market Tour Video… uhhh, Audio.
I’m aware of the issue with this morning’s Market Tour video. Audio seems to work fine, but only the cursor movement is captured and not the actual charts. I apologize for the inconvenience, and have reported the issue to Adobe.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Start and stop again?
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Gapping up just above Friday’s 2393.00 prior high was just enough to overcome Friday’s failure to close above Thursday’s 2396.50 prior high. Extending higher immediately, relentlessly and sharply all fulfilled the setup, which tested 2402.25 during the morning’s bias environment. The balance of the session ranged flat-to-lower down to 2397.00. Monday’s new high close was at or overlapping the 2400.00 prior intraday high. It satisfies the “unfinished business above” which had been required since the prior trend high close had printed on a Friday. The close’s overlap gets credit since all prior intraday highs were probed Monday.
Overnight action’s new info…
Monday afternoon’s flat-to-lower ranging initially extended, touching 2396.25 before midnight. Firming from there is only now probing attacking 2401.00.
If, then…
No “unfinished business above” means that reversing down immediately could evolve into a durable decline. It’s a vulnerability, and it’s probably coming soon. But probing more fresh highs first is likelier after Monday afternoon’s pullback despite the morning piercing a new high — presumably including 2405.00, if not also 2415.00. Gapping down under 2397.00 to “lower prior highs” might be the only way to avoid another detour first.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2403.00 would be likely to trigger the 2401.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2397.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2404.25 | 2401.00 |
| …would target | 2409.50 | 2406.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2395.00 | 2392.75 |
| …would target | 2389.75 | 2387.50 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.