Posts by Rod David
Post-open Review… Lower lows meet target.
Post-open surge reacts down sharply, tries to bottom.
The 2780.50 overnight low’s recovery to 2787.50 suddenly surged at the open, 
extending to 2792.50 as the opening 15 minutes of volatility lapsed. That was sufficient for reversing back under 2790.00 to trigger a sell signal, which quickly dipped back down to the 2784.25 bias-down target.
Then one of today’s volatility catalysts was heard from — the U.S. China trade negotiator. Reaction to the headlines triggered a collapse down to the decline’s next lower objective at 2777.00. Its 5-point bounce up to 2782.25 reacted back down to momentarily probe a fresh low at 2775.00. But that has been recovered to 2783.50.
Back under 2777.75 would get another chance to resume the decline. Exiting the bias environment under 2777.00 would put into play the next lower objective at 2754.00.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… That’s going to leave a mark.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Monday’s reversal from its 2814.00 recovery high had extended down overnight to 2783.25. Perhaps it was a the product of anxiousness ahead of Tuesday morning’s Fed Chair Senate testimony. Firming back up to 2791.50 at the open put into play a test of 2802.00, which was met at the 2803.25 late-morning high. A mid-day dip was recovered coming out of the environment to retest the morning’s high. But no higher, and the last half-hour trended back down to 2791.50, flat with the open.
Overnight action’s new info…
Tuesday’s late slide didn’t hesitate before extended lower to quickly print 2786.50, or before reacting back up to 2791.50 resistance. Not very interesting until trading on the CME was halted around 7:40 pm ET, leaving a 3-hour hole in the charts. Testing 2793.25 before and after midnight collapsed to test and retest Monday night’s 2783.25 low. Bouncing 4 points through Europe’s opens was resolved back down again, this time to test Friday afternoon’s 2781.50 low. Now another bounce is testing 2786.00.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Retesting Monday night’s dip isn’t surprising. Yesterday’s intraday recovery was rewarded only with choppy sideways ranging. Its retest by proxy or by probe was likely. Opening back above Tuesday’s 2789.50 low could isolate the weakness to help launch a retest of Monday’s highs. Otherwise, lower lows have room down to 2777.00 before suggesting the drop from Monday’s highs is heading for 2754.00. The catalysts for volatility still include today’s 10:00am Fed Chair testimony, Turmp’s Hanoi visit, and escalation of the India-Pakistan conflict.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2781.50 would be likely also to exceed the 2784.25 bias-down target through 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2788.00 would be likely at least to trigger the 2790.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2794.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2800.75 | 2801.00 |
| …would target | 2807.75 | 2808.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2790.25 | 2790.75 |
| …would target | 2783.75 | 2784.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Perhaps it was just defensive posturing ahead of Tuesday morning’s Fed Chair Senate testimony. 
Monday’s slide from its 2814.00 morning high had extended overnight down to 2783.25.
The relatively deep decline didn’t prevent recovering to greet the open back up at 2791.50 support. It was also the morning’s bias-down signal, and holding its support put into play at test of 2802.00. The first attack stopped 2 points short before Powell comments seemed to trigger a retest of 2791.50 by 2 points. But there was just enough time and plenty of volatility to test the objective up to 2803.25 by noon.
A mid-day dip ranged narrowly throughout the afternoon’s no-bias environment. The window’s exit rallied back to morning highs, but only back to morning highs. Tuesday’s last half-hour retraced the mid-day lows, and lower as futures settled back at 2791.50 support.
Just as the afternoon recovery’s steepness left it vulnerable to any hesitation, the rejection’s steepness now leaves it vulnerable to another recovery. A retest of Monday night’s 2783.25 low can’t be dismissed, since its recovery’s ultimate productivity only fluctuated around unchanged. Otherwise, not already probing lower at Wednesday’s open probably will have begun recovering Tuesday’s late drop.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Still firming Tuesday since completing its pullback, but with restrained optimism that suggests a break higher could almost literally explode to the upside.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Backing-and-filling persisted Tuesday, still hovering at or under its 1328.50-1333.00 pullback limit and likely to resolve up and test unfinished business above.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s pullback low held the 15.80 “lower prior highs” whose recovery had confirmed the prior upleg and target in-play. This pullback has no time limit, but there is no lower requirement and no reason to further delay launching a credible rally.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping right back up to the 146-12 buy signal Tuesday extended higher without delay to retest Friday’s high up to 146-27. And unlike Friday’s prior test, indicated to end the day at the upper-end of its range rather than lower. Interim dips have probed relevant support without attracting reinforcements or otherwise confirming their reversal attempts. Repeatedly recovering suggests the pattern still intends to resolve in a new upleg above 147-00.
Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Monday’s extended pullback had probed under the 55.85-56.05 pullback limit. Not confirming with a second consecutive lower close helps to suggest the reaction was only temporary. Closing back above 56.10 as soon as Tuesday remains entirely credible for resuming the rally to fresh recovery highs.
Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
[Rolling coverage forward to Apr which trades at a 4-cent discount to Mar]… Gapping up Tuesday began retracing immediately, leaving it to a positive close either to fulfill an already confirmed breakout, or else to confirm a borderline breakout and require another positive close to fulfill it.