Posts by Rod David
Post-open Review… Is firm far enough?
Post-open surge and follow-through holds at resistance.
After a relatively narrow overnight range, the open was greeted unchanged from yesterday’s 2385.00 close. As often happens, volatility suddenly arrived post-open. A spike up attacked the 2388.00 bias-up signal to within 1 tick, and then fell back entirely to unchanged.
But the open held. Firming gradually returned to fresh highs, touching the bias-up signal in-time to invoke the grace period. It was still being touched at 10:30 to avoid triggering. This is a noN-bias environment.
The 2394.00 bias-up target is not in-play, but it can be tested anyway. Or, attacked up to 2391.50. Meanwhile, the 2388.00 bias-up signal’s test could still be reversed back under 2386.50 and extend down under yesterday’s lows, potentially testing 2375.00.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Constricted.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s gap up to 2377.00 extended quickly to 2387.00 through the bias timing window. The bias environment and noon hour ranged sideways, but the afternoon bias environment exit was probing fresh highs. Like Monday afternoon, no traction was confirmed. And like Monday afternoon, the balance of the session trended back down.
Overnight action’s new info…
The Globex open quickly touched yesterday’s 2382.25 low and began bouncing 4 points. Retracing to within 1 tick of the low also reacted up 4 points. The range remains intact as the initial low is being attacked to within 1 point.
If, then…
Yesterday’s close above 2375.00 put into play new highs. Subject to confirmation by closing above 2375.00 today, too, preferably higher. Pullbacks meanwhile may test 2360.00-2361.00 as support without reversing the trend down, and being able to reinstate new highs. Probing under yesterday’s lows seems likely since yesterday’s buyers gained no traction and the rally hasn’t extended overnight. Delaying a rally effort much longer would be too late to be credible, and would be vulnerable to reversing down sharply.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2390.50 would be likely to trigger the 2388.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2385.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open above 2383.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2381.25 bias-down signal.
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2391.25 | 2388.00 |
| …would target | 2397.25 | 2394.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2384.50 | 2381.25 |
| …would target | 2378.50 | 2375.25 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Tuesday afternoon was almost identical to Monday. Exiting the bias environment above the noon hour’s high, but dipping into the final hour. Greeting the proxy window at fresh highs, but not trending higher through it. A relevant difference being that Monday’s proxy window already started dipping into the close, while Tuesday’s closing dip was delayed.
Almost identical. But identical enough? Similar setups that appear consecutively seldom resolve similarly. Tuesday’s resolution was up, or at least up without delay. Will Wednesday’s resolution be down? Up, only after a delay or detour? Regardless, gapping up would be less likely to extend, and likelier to reverse down, at least initially.
Meanwhile, closing above 2375.00 has put into play new highs. Subject to confirmation from a second consecutive higher close Wednesday — or, so long as a pullback holds 2360.00-2361.00 — the really that began last Monday is targeting 2405.00 and probably also 2415.00. The context of price action prior to last Monday suggests that the high’s retest will form a bigger top.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday’s close under 1.0905 didn’t prevent Tuesday from probing above Sunday night’s 1.0918 highs to attack 1.0980. Closing back under 1.0925 would signal a reversal back under 1.0905 targeting 1.0860 in-play.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday’s probe under Sunday night and Monday’s lows tested 1263.00, leaving room down to 1261.00-1262.00 for a more thorough pullback to complete.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping down Tuesday probed fresh lows under 17.55, no longer testing the 17.90 pullback limit whose recovery would target at least 18.18.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday’s gap down back to Monday’s 152-26 open slid deeper to at least 152-08, instead of recovering 153-12 to signal that a recovery has begun. The pullback is now likely to first test 151-20.
Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Initially dipping to test the original 48.90 buy signal was recovered to probe back above 49.30, suggesting that a bottom is forming. A recovery would not delay chipping away at 50.60 resistance.
Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Remaining under pressure Tuesday only attacked and tested Monday’s lows, but didn’t close lower to fulfill the confirmed breakout’s requirement for at least one eventual lower close.