Posts by Rod David
Mid-day Update… Still make, or break.
Beige Book ahead.
Rallying through the first half-hour to test 2349.00 didn’t begin optimally. Does its reversal down to attack 2338.00 correct it?
The open’s problems finally caught up with it. Not extending this morning’s gap up. Not maintaining the probe above the bias-up target. Violating the pullback limit. Add those problems to those that have been mounting problems since the weekend. Not rallying until very close to Monday’s open. Delaying Tuesday’s recovery of the morning’s bias-down signal. Not gaining traction Tuesday afternoon.
All of which could have been absorbed. Indeed, the problems WERE being absorbed. Tuesday morning’s reaction down was recovered. And this morning’s reaction down entered the noon hour in positive territory. Retracing to this morning’s 2341.75 bias-up signal during the morning’s bias environment would have essentially put into play new lows. But its test was delayed until after noon, so its break doesn’t have to be fatal.
But its break is not yet recovered. In fact, 2341.75 is being tested as resistance as the bias environment is entered. The gap back to yesterday’s close and the 2337.75 bias-down signal were attacked but not triggered. Beige Book is due at the top of the hour, which undermines trending.
Any recovery potential will be based on recovering a prior high at a relevant time, like exiting the bias environment above 2343.50. Otherwise, back under 2339.00 would be vulnerable to resuming the decline.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Apr 20, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: A dull weak in econ reports suddenly gets active Thursday. Any noticeable reaction to the pre-open Philly Fed survey (less likely that Jobless Claims triggers a reaction) is likely to be duplicated in reaction to the post-open LEI.
*Jerome Powell Speaks
8:00 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
*Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
8:30 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
*Leading Indicators
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
5-Yr TIPS Auction
1:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2351.00 | 2347.25 |
| …would target | 2355.75 | 2352.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2341.25 | 2337.75 |
| …would target | 2336.25 | 2332.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Better late than never.
Taking long to break resistance. Again.
The overnight rally was still going at it before the open. The 2347.25 bias-up target, which is also the objective left outstanding yesterday, was attacked to within 3 ticks. 
One last pullback to 2343.75 surged 4 points to touch 2347.25 during the open’s first minutes.
Its reaction down exited the opening 15 minutes of volatility while still overlapping yesterday’s 2345.00 high. Only maintaining the gap up doesn’t qualify as extending it. Not extending meant sponsorship was having difficulty attracting reinforcements.
That didn’t prevent a 5-point surge to 2349.25. But it undermined it. The 2347.25 bias-up target was still being overlapped at 10:15 to avoid renewing the bias-up signal. Now a pullback limit has been violated during a pullback to 2344.50.
The renewed target would have been 2352.00. It still could be met, since this is still a bias-up environment. Its test isn’t in-play, but would be signaled back above 2347.25. Meanwhile, back under 2344.25 would start to signal that this buying has only stretched the rubber band to be snapped back down.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Make, or break.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW! Market Tour transcript included at the end of this post…
NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Gapping down Tuesday held the overnight low and quickly rallied, essentially filling the gap back up to Monday’s 2345.00 close to within 2-3 ticks. A consolidation ended at the same moment that the bias environment began lapsing. Reacting down from 2341.00 probed fresh session lows that attacked 2330.00 at noon. Recovering back 2341.00 through the afternoon bias environment held through the close. Each post-open downleg stopped just short of invalidating the morning’s 2347.25 bias objective, which is now “unfinished business above.”
Overnight action’s new info…
Tuesday’s late 2341.00 peaks were being prodded and probed before Europe’s opens. The prodding and probing continued through Europe’s opens. But not for much longer, as a surge has broken through to touch 2345.00.
If, then…
Recovering Tuesday morning’s 2337.75 bias-down signal has kept the door open to extending its afternoon recovery. Not recovering 2337.75 until the afternoon bias environment has kept the door open to rejecting the recovery, all but ensuring fresh multi-week lows. Escaping that downside attraction — and compensating for the delayed 2337.75 recovery — requires rallying aggressively. Already firming overnight is a start, but gapping up to and/or through 2345.00 resistance must still extend higher through the open. Especially if the 2347.25 outstanding objective is neutralized. Otherwise, that buying pressure will only have stretched the rubber band to snap back down.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2345.00 would be likely to trigger the 2341.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2337.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Phonetic dictation…
[NEW! Unreviewed voice-to-text real-time dictation of the Market Tour recording. Again, not reviewed or edited in any way, which can be equally confusing and humorous.] good morning and welcome it’s Wednesday instead for Wednesday’s Morning Market to her not a terribly interesting overnight session as far as volatility trading opportunities at cetera maybe we’ve got a sending trying I said maybe because it’s really and consequential landlocked in here surrounded by the price action and I don’t like to look at patterns internally there as a continuation parents reversal patterns typically or part of the bigger patterns so isolated missile triangle doesn’t really do any good but it does give us a focal point this is lower price lower price of the triangle happens also be to 2341 4125 peek of yesterday’s recovery into the bathroom I’m an exit which was a retest of the origin of that last down like that begin instantaneously with the Morning by its environment exit they didn’t extend higher either through yesterday’s final hour or the 310 320 proxy window which would have led to a rise to the clothes so it’s real if there happens to be a dip pre-open wouldn’t expect one Post open of consequences one or I’m sure that will cover it or if it’s tested it’s not like that anyway Monday’s close it’s not just Tuesday night or Monday night’s High 47 that just retested that that happens to a bit as a Monday’s close to buy a sub signal for the next morning natural resistance here or a calculable resistance test all the stuff thrown at the market which is the reason why we have the door still open during these attempts to reject what was put in the that gives us knowing that we got the attraction above and in that context sellers try to reverse and they fail at 10:30 they fail at noon to the relevant level at that time 35 they put all that probably going to be probably through Monday has that played out and it certainly looks at the picture what is here at the High thanks to the snap boat being called yesterday but that upset attraction is neutralized so unless there’s a second consecutive are closed today that made likely be at at least for topping or backing and filling for the pound and in the Aussie which went out testing and cell signal trending that even deeper overnight silver gap down slid continually gravitating back up to 1830 yesterday really needs to recover that pulled back limit there is no requirement to extend any hotair just a likelihood based on the pattern type it its placement versus prize no extent was the highest Target need to close a bug 1294 to put into play any higher highs in fact the putting a plate 1311 me welcome it is now hard 1297d and that’s being probed overnight tonight really getting follow through to that long bone is not going to reverse down suddenly from this fresh High but the bigger question is whether it’s going to extend higher and basically confirmed break up because this is a multi session rain here Friday to Monday and crude oil which broke maintained its prey kinda overlapping 52 or attacking 5270 the cell signal if there’s a break confirm today by a second cuz I get close then 5065 is employee reports this morning and natural gas eia report tomorrow it’s flirting again with 313 cell signal didn’t actually closed under it all right here and I’ll see you before the open please put any questions in the good luck today .