Posts by Rod David
Saturday Review’s recording (for 4/8/17) … The big picture gets bigger.
This week introduces the quarterly earnings onslaught into the political undercurrents and geopolitical overt actions. It will be a lot for four days to absorb — the market is closed on Good Friday. A brief window is open to allow a downleg to begin before the traditional seasonal holiday influence tries to close that door. The alternative would likely begin a recovery to new highs. Meanwhile, intraday volatility is going to keep things interesting. All of which we discuss in this weekend’s Saturday Review…
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
SBUX, GDX, KO, CCL, LW, RH, ASPS, VZ, WYN, RAD, XHB, XLY, S, AMD, AMZN, TSLA, EGDFF, CTT
Saturday Review Link
SPECIAL NOTE: If you haven’t yet, please test the Adobe chaRTroom software well before the Saturday Review. Last-minute assistance won’t be available — it’s linked here. Thank you!
.Be sure to join us by 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review. After discussing the bigger picture and gaming out strategies for playing next week’s likelier opening setups, we’ll do instant analysis of any stock charts that you request… See you there!
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2360.25 | 2357.00 |
| …would target | 2365.25 | 2362.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2353.25 | 2350.25 |
| …would target | 2348.00 | 2344.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
SPECIAL NOTE: IF YOU HAVEN’T YET, PLEASE TEST THE ADOBE CHARTROOM SOFTWARE FRIDAY NIGHT. Last-minute assistance won’t be available before the Saturday Review. I’ll have it available Friday night here. Thank you!
That was an impressive recovery overnight from Thursday night’s missile attack. Too bad. If the recovery couldn’t exceed its origin’s prior resistance (i.e. 2357.50), then it would have been better served by leaving something on the table to attract strong-handed intraday buyers.
The same applies to the afternoon’s surge. If not recovering 2357.50 in time to trigger its bias-up, then probing it later only reflected weak-handed sponsorship. As a corollary, the same applies to the balance of the afternoon bias environment, which wasted even more buying pressure just to hover above 2357.50. Breaking down 6 points under it to 2351.50 into the close reflected weak hands getting flat before the weekend.
That late drop came too late, itself, to be predictive. So long as the pattern remains under 2357.50 through relevant timing windows, the pattern remains vulnerable to capitulation. Strong-handed sellers may have launched such a drop already Friday, if not for the overnight plunge attracting weak-handed sellers ripe to be squeezed. We should know one way, or the other, at Monday’s open.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
After an ongoing delay and teasing of the pullback limit, breaking lower overnight extended down Friday to greet the weekend probing lower, now targeting 1.0550.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s post-close recovery above the 1252.50 buy signal and Thursday’s gap above it kept the pattern poised for a very favorable reaction to the overnight missile strikes. Surging into Friday’s open extended to test 1273.00, but that was retraced back down to Thursday’s 1256.00 “lower prior highs” as support. So, Monday’s confirmed buy signal still requires at least one more fresh high close. The pullback has room down to 1254.50 to maintain upside momentum, and now also a structural attraction above — Friday’s 1265.00 gap up down above all prior highs should be filled.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up Friday probed above 18.30, which closing above would have confirmed a probe above 18.55 remains in-play. But reversing down closed back at or within Thursday’s range.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Global unease enabled an overnight rally to probe above prior highs up to 153-04. It was nevertheless rejected to close under 152-02, maintaining the topping pattern, which closing under 151-12 would signal is starting to rollover.
Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Did spiking up overnight to 52.95 on the missile strike overcome Thursday’s “ineffectual optimism”? It was retraced into Friday’s open, but closing above or below 52.40 would either clear the path to the 53.55 target, or else enable a pullback to 50.65.
Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Greeting Thursday’s EIA report from a position of strength hasn’t been any more bullish than to prevent a deep reaction down. Friday’s intraday weakness was yet to shallow to signal momentum reversing down.