Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2361.00 | 2357.50 |
| …would target | 2367.00 | 2363.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2352.00 | 2348.75 |
| …would target | 2346.75 | 2343.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BOTH BIAS SIGNALS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Thursday afternoon wasn’t really paralyzed by anxiousness ahead of Friday’s Employment Situation report. But its trending attempts got nowhere. The noon hour exit rallied through the morning’s 2354.00 high up to 2361.25. That was reversed down under 2350.00, where the balance of the session consolidated back up to 2354.00.
A wide range, but no net. The afternoon’s 2364.50 bias-up target became “unfinished business above.” It might stay that way for awhile. There was no bullish reason for Thursday afternoon’s probe of fresh highs to be retraced back under 2350.50.
The door is open to retesting Thursday morning’s low down to 2344.75 or lower. Lower could be difficult to recover, but easier to roll over the ledge to much lower targets. Recovering above 2357.50 and extending higher without delay would avoid that ledge.
Rallying sufficiently at Friday’s open
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Try the new ADOBE platform while monitoring overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s late blip-down to a fresh low didn’t quickly prove itself Thursday to have been a false break. The range’s lower-end was still tested, instead of at least probing back above 1.0725.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday morning retraced only some of Wednesday’s post-close surge back above 1252.00, the confirmed buy signal that had been broken intraday.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Recovering after Wednesday’s close to probe back above 18.30 was retraced shallowly overnight, and Thursday hesitated in resuming the recovery.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s reaction to FOMC Minutes had surged back up to the rally’s original 152-02 target, but reacted down overnight. Initially firming Thursday morning also reacted down, attacking the 151-12 sell signal that had been thoroughly tested Wednesday. .
Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Only a slightly lower low overnight tried to extend Wednesday’s negative reaction to the EIA report. Thursday’s open gapped up within Wednesday’s range, but rallied only to fill the gap back up to Wednesday’s open. That’s ineffectual optimism, and can’t afford to delay extending higher if a deeper corrective dip will be avoided.
Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s EIA report was greeted from a position of strength, already closing above prior highs. Fresh highs intraday rewarded that strength, but the pattern still isn’t tracking a template that can forecast the pattern’s resolution.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Apr 7, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Friday’s pre-open Employment Situation is being announced separately from other reports, allowing a more pronounced price reaction to it. The session’s other reports aren’t likely to influence price action. Although the Rig Count might, if it were to reverse its string of expansion.
*Employment Situation
8:30 AM ET
Wholesale Trade
10:00 AM ET
William Dudley speaks
12:15 PM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Consumer Credit
3:00 PM ET
Mid-day Update… Recovered! (to resistance.)
Bias-up target met, holding.
This morning’s 2351.00 bias-up signal triggered late, but cleanly, probing the 2354.00 pre-10:15 high through 10:30. Its 2357.50 bias-up target was pierced by
1 tick as the bias environment began lapsing.
That’s step-one, both for a rally and for a new downleg.
Recovering to 2357.50 rewards buyers that absorbed the post-open dip attacking 2344.75. Extending the recovery would suggest it is attracting new sponsorship. Meanwhile, the reward has satisfied near-term buying pressure, making price vulnerable to falling.
Thursday afternoons are often paralyzed by anxiousness ahead of Friday morning’s Employment Situation report. Yesterday morning rallied bravely ahead of the afternoon’s FOMC Minutes, and suffered the consequences. Memories may be the recovery’s biggest challenge here, but the market will rally if it wants.