Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2370.00 | 2366.25 |
| …would target | 2375.50 | 2372.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2361.75 | 2358.25 |
| …would target | 2356.75 | 2353.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Naturalizing the Wednesday’s “unfinished business above” at 2362.50 overnight was vulnerable to reversing down. Which it did. Reversing down into Thursday’s open was vulnerable to trending down. Which it did not.
And since trending down Thursday morning had been likely to almost literally implode, consolidating the gap down soon marginalized sellers. Bouncing kept the door open to probing higher. Even failing to trigger the 2362.50 bias-up didn’t prevent “no-bias trending” to fresh highs.
The prematurely broken bias-up signal was retraced down to 2359.00 at the noon hour lows. The morning’s “unfinished business below” at its 2351.75 bias-down signal remained outstanding. Instead, the afternoon bounced, stopping pessimistically short of touching the morning’s highs. Trending higher was possible, but it didn’t.
Once again, reversing down has only a limited window of opportunity to exploit. So, not trending down abruptly at Friday’s open would suggest extending the rally into the weekend. And fresh highs can be probed overnight and rejected into Friday’s open. The only unfinished business outstanding is below.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping down again Thursday is no less premature for launching a new downleg without first retesting Monday’s 1.0935 gap open, The break under 1.0835 has extended to 1.0725, and back above 1.0765 would signal momentum reversing up.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Dipping Thursday probed Friday’s post-close low down to 1244.00, which further neutralized any attraction below that it might have had. Also lacking any upside requirements since already rewarding last week’s confirmed breakout, the pattern is being monitored for a new setup and signal.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Firming Thursday morning touched the “higher prior lows” at 18.30. Reversing to close in negative territory would prevent extending the bounce to probe above 18.55.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Still yet to retest Monday’s 151-26 gap up, the 150-24 sell signal was retested Thursday. Its prior test has chipped away at its support to allow its break to be credible, albeit not yet optimal.
Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Already probing slightly higher overnight, the 48.50 signal and its 49.30 confirmation were probed Thursday to test 50.45, likely forming a bottom. Its recovery should test at least 53.55.
Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The knee-jerk reaction to Thursday’s EIA report touched the 3.14 sell signal and bounced as expected to fill the gap at Wednesday’s 3.23 open. Any close under Thursday’s low would now be credible for reversing the trend down.
Mid-day Update… Market getting back to consequences.
No-bias trending is retraced.
The open didn’t almost literally explode higher. At least, not above Tuesday-Wednesday highs.
But neither did the pattern implode lower. Post-open action did trend almost straight up from gapping down. So, the pattern isn’t yet required to reverse down.
No-bias trending required reversing down eventually. Not just Tuesday’s from 2342.25, but also this morning’s probing above its 2362.50 bias-up signal. It was touched at the overnight high, and probed this morning up to 2366.75. But its attraction below has been neutralized by dropping into the noon hour down to 2359.00.
That tested this afternoon’s 2360.00 bias-down signal. Which held. It should now define the bias environment’s lower-end. Even if tested again, at least until the bias environment lapsing begins.
Meanwhile, a bounce can try (and may be trying) to test the afternoon’s 2366.00 bias-up signal. An air pocket above to 2369.00 has already been utilized, but could be retraced.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Mar 31, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Thursday morning’s calendar is busy. Of two reliably influential reports, one is high-profile. And of two high-profile Fed speakers, one is reliably influential to price action.
Personal Income and Outlays
8:30 AM ET
*Chicago PMI
9:45 AM ET
*Consumer Sentiment
10:00 AM ET
*Neel Kashkari Speaks
10:00 AM ET
*James Bullard Speaks
10:30 AM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET