Posts by Rod David
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
It seems the biggest impediment to fulfilling Monday afternoon’s bias-up target was the bias-up environment, itself. Before even triggering the 2335.50 bias-up signal, the 2341.50 bias-up target had been attacked to within 1 point. And the bias-up environment’s reaction continued to 3 points under the bias-up signal at 2332.50.
Eventually, the bias environment lapsed. A recovery began immediately, and didn’t stop until touching the 2341.50 bias-up target. Then the recovery did stop, reacting down to 2337.00 through the close.
No “unfinished business above” was left outstanding. The gap back up to Friday’s 2342.00-2345.00 close will want to be filled, but it’s only an attraction and not a requirement. The open’s 2321.00 gap under the prior lows will want to be filled, as much a requirement as an attraction.
Monday’s post-open rally gained no traction for its effort, which leaves the door open to another dip. But closing above 2331.00 after testing 2317.00 2327.00 intraday does suggest that an intraday dip would recover — whether from 2321.00 or 2311.00.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Sharply higher highs overnight probed well above the 1.0900 target to 1.0950 before settling back to attack 1.0900 as support. Closing back under 1.0895 would start to signal momentum reversing down.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Initially rallying to fresh highs Monday morning at 1261.00 did react down to 1252.50, which was still sufficient to fulfill the minimum requirement for at least one more higher close outstanding.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Sunday night’s rally extended through the 17.90 target to test 18.15, and must now hold above 17.90 to maintain the rally’s momentum.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The next higher objective at 152-00 was tested Sunday night. Monday morning’s reaction down tested the adjusted pullback limit at 151-12. Closing under the recovery’s gap up suggests the rally is waning, but there is room down to 150-24 before suggesting momentum reversing down.
Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Proximity to the 48.50 buy signal and two days of narrow ranging didn’t prevent attacking last week’s lows under 47.10. Recovering up to resistance didn’t recover positive territory, which reflects “ineffectual pessimism” that keeps alive near-term potential to recover.
Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Sunday night to fresh highs at 3.12-3.13 didn’t extend and only overlapped last week’s “lower prior highs.” Closing under lower prior highs suggests a new rally leg is not starting.
Mid-day Update… The longest yard.
Stopping short of the bias-up target.
The first half-hour recovered from attacking 2317.00 support to testing 2327.00 resistance. It slowed from there. Not for a very long time, but at a time nonetheless 
that defined the difference between strong hands and weak. Waiting to probe higher until after the first hour identified the probe’s sponsorship as weak-handed.
Weak-handed, or not, the probe has extended both substantially and relentlessly. But not surprisingly. Its objectives extended from 2331.00-2335.50, all tested before noon.
Reacting down didn’t prevent higher highs, but they were delayed until the noon hour. Which also reflected weak-handed sponsorship. And which also did not prevent extending higher again.
Now this afternoon’s 2335.50 bias-up signal has triggered. And it’s being tested as support, after an interim bounce stopped more than 1 point short of its 2341.50 bias-up target. Overbought RSIs at the high require its retest.
Otherwise, back under 2332.75 would start to signal that overbought RSIs will be left outstanding. Resuming the decline today would target fresh lows, and potentially also 2311.00. Even while closing today above 2331.00 would marginalize sellers, it wouldn’t prevent a shallower dip tomorrow before recovering.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Mar 28, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday morning’s calendar is busy, but not very high-profile, and with only one report that is reliable for influencing price action. The afternoon’s two Fed speakers may have more influence.
Dennis Kaplan Speaks
Mon 6:30 PM ET
International Trade in Goods
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller HPI
9:00 AM ET
*Consumer Confidence
10:00 AM ET
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
10:00 AM ET
State Street Investor Confidence Index
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
52-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
*Esther George Speaks
12:45 PM ET
*Dennis Kaplan Speaks
1:00 PM ET
5-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2339.00 | 2335.50 |
| …would target | 2344.75 | 2341.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2332.25 | 2329.00 |
| …would target | 2326.75 | 2323.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.