Posts by Rod David
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Thursday’s gap up opened at the 2384.00 bias-up signal, and quickly slid down to its 2376.00 bias-down signal. Probing under it in the morning only briefly pierced 2374.00. Probing under it in the afternoon only briefly pierced 2374.00, too. The interim bounce held 2380.00.
Trading out the day range-bound was the session’s least likely scenario. It creates pent-up pressure that is likely to be released by gapping open Friday. Meanwhile, an overnight dip could neutralize the attraction back down to 2370.50 where Wednesday’s FOMC news was greeted, and recover in time to gap up Friday. But probing higher overnight would more likely maintain a gap up and extend higher into the weekend.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Fulfilling the retest of Sunday night’s highs up to 1.0765 probed higher Wednesday night. Holding the test would form a substantial top, and a reversal down would be triggered back under 1.0695.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Spiking up after Wednesday’s close in reaction to FOMC had extended to “higher prior lows” at 1225.00. The next higher objective at a gap up was filled Thursday morning up to 1232.50. Having probed the prior structure, the 1222.00 gap down is an attraction, as is the gap back down to Tuesday’s close.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
The post-close reaction to Wednesday’s FOMC spiked up through the 17.05 buy signal. Extending higher overnight greeted Thursday’s open at the 17.50 target. Closing any higher would next target 17.90.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Already fulfilling the 148-20 corrective bounce target allows the decline to resume, by closing back under 147-24. Closing any higher would only suggest a bigger corrective bounce underway, with potential to 149-22.
Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday’s Island Reversal pattern remained intact through Thursday’s open, greatly diminishing the attraction to fill the gap back down to Tuesday’s close before extending the corrective bounce up to 50.00.
Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s EIA report wasn’t greeted from a position of strength, since the 3.00 pullback limit failed to hold or be recovered. Thursday opened under the 2.95 sell signal that had been probed Tuesday. Probing it deeper Thursday down to 2.88 tried reversing up, but still failed to recover 2.95 through the close.
Mid-day Update… Making short work of it.
Is the pullback already done?
A test of this morning’s 2376.00 was put into play by holding a test of the 2384.00 bias-up signal. It was soon fulfilled, and then probed down to 2373.75 as the bias environment began lapsing. But 2376.00 was recovered as the bias environment was fully exited into the noon hour.
Failing its timely recovery would have extended the drop. A usual objective is back to the origin of any FOMC reaction. That would be 2370.50. And any sell signal would put it back into play.
The noon hour’s bounce to 2380.00 has reacted down to attack 2376.00. This is a no-bias environment with no attraction, but trending would be credible when it starts lapsing. Back under 2376.00 or above 2378.75 would be credible for extending in that direction.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Mar 17, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Friday’s expirationn isn’t so unusual for being the quarterly Quadruple Witching. But reports released alongside any expiration is usually limited. This one has three reports alone that are simultaneous, two of which are high-profile.
Industrial Production
9:15 AM ET
Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations
10:00 AM ET
*Consumer Sentiment
10:00 AM ET
*Leading Indicators
10:00 AM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2385.75 | 2382.00 |
| …would target | 2390.50 | 2387.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2378.25 | 2374.75 |
| …would target | 2373.50 | 2369.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.