Posts by Rod David
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Feb 21, 2019
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Suddenly, the holiday-shortened week gets very active with a busy calendar of high-profile AND reliably influential econ reports. Two of the three pre-open items are both, which is only likelier to create volatility for being released simultaneously. Any noticeable reaction to them is likely to be duplicated by the post-open reports, which also includes the high-profile influential LEI. Finally, the one-day delayed crude oil EIA report should at least offer a clear snapshot of how its inverted Head & Shoulders pattern is developing.
Raphael Bostic Speaks
7:50 AM ET
*Durable Goods Orders
8:30 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
*Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
8:30 AM ET
PMI Composite FLASH
9:45 AM ET
Existing Home Sales
10:00 AM ET
*Leading Indicators
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
11:00 AM ET
30-Yr TIPS Auction
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2787.75 | 2787.50 |
| …would target | 2793.75 | 2793.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2775.00 | 2775.00 |
| …would target | 2769.00 | 2769.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Slow-motion.
Little effort expended during narrow, encompassed opening range.
The relatively narrow overnight range was more noise than it was a pattern. A downtrending resistance of its highs was probed at 2779.00 just before the open, but no inflection developed. The opening 15 minutes of volatility only fluctuated narrowly between 2779.00-2781.50.
A blip-down to 2777.75 has reacted back up choppily to end the first hour attacking 2784.50. Still, neither bias signal was touched, not even attacked. So, neither bias signal requires being tested.
Perhaps the 2786.00 bias-up signal will be met, or attacked. That would be in-line with the 3-4 point trending attempts that I warned in the chaRTroom not to expect more of — if even relying on that much. Stretching the rubber band upward this morning might allow a more substantial snap back down, albeit still no likelier to leave yesterday’s range. Breaking higher would target a retest of yesterday’s 2787.50 high.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Still unchanged.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
The three-day holiday weekend ended by gapping down from an otherwise relatively narrow extended range between 2773.00-2780.50. Tuesday’s 2766.00 opening dip to Friday’s last relative low reacted straight up to unchanged at Friday’s 2776.00-2777.00 close. Surging again into noon probed overnight highs up to 2784.00 at noon. Higher highs into the final hour go to 2787.50 but gained no traction, and 1-minute RSI was only on the cusp of being overbought. The balance of the session dipped back down to unchanged, a second consecutive close above 2751.00/2757.00. But not decisively positive, so neither was its confirmation that new highs had been put into play.
Overnight action’s new info…
Despite soon bouncing back up to 2782.25, fresh lows briefly attacked 2774.00 before midnight. Despite soon bouncing back up to 2780.75, more fresh lows briefly attacked 2773.00. A shallower bounce, so far, is only overlapping 2776.00-2777.00.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Yesterday’s late dip back down to 2776.00-2777.00 hasn’t been rejected overnight, which I would have expected if the late dip there was from weak-handed sponsorship. Instead, still fluctuating around it overnight, digging out lower and lower lows, suggests otherwise — that the rally which is being retraced was created by weak-handed sponsorship. But that’s not yet enough to indicate its retracement is extending down, which all but requires gapping down or at least immediately extending to exit a timing window back under Tuesday morning’s 2766.00 low. Rallying out of the open would mean the rally’s next higher objective will have been established, albeit vulnerable to backing-and-filling first more gradually, from a position of strength likely to be recovered.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2766.00 would be likely to trigger the 2768.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2776.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2786.25 | 2786.00 |
| …would target | 2793.75 | 2793.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2768.50 | 2768.50 |
| …would target | 2762.25 | 2762.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.