Posts by Rod David
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Holding this morning’s test of its 2364.00 bias-down signal had put into play an offsetting test of its 2372.25 bias-up signal. Breaking sharply lower to 2357.50 came too late to prevent 2372.25 from becoming “unfinished business above.”
The break to 2357.50 held its support, which had been the bias-down target. And the actual selling was short-lived as the context suggested. But 2364.00 held its recovery instead of returning into positive territory. It’s not necessarily bearish, and the vacuum could represent ineffectual pessimism that resolves up sharply Wednesday.
Resolving back down would next target the 2354.00 area. It could be tested in a deeper detour before reversing back up to the highs — 2372.25 up to 2373.75. But the rally is tentative. And not exploiting the proximity at Monday’s close to confirming its breakout on Tuesday does suggest the rally’s momentum is in jeopardy.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. SPECIAL NOTE: The recording’s host is affected by the Amazon server outage, so it may be unavailable for viewing.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday’s bounce retested Monday’s 1.0635 high, supported by the 1.0585 bounce limit that was barely being tested as support Monday.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Monday’s post-close weakness down to 1251.50 was retraced back up to 1259.00 Tuesday. But only temporarily before returning to 1251.50, and then lower post-close. That filled the gap back down to Thursday’s breakout close, but a fresh high close remains outstanding.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
[Rolling front-month forward to May, at a 6-cent premium to Mar] Firming only slightly Tuesday to 18.50 keeps alive potential for extending higher to fulfill the 18.75 target.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday’s “ineffectual optimism” kept alive the upside momentum of Friday’s breakout, despite not confirming it. But fresh highs Tuesday only pierced Monday’s high, and still hasn’t extended the rally.
Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping down sharply Tuesday to and through the 53.58 sell signal was recovered to fill the gap back up to Monday’s 54.00 close, still holding the range’s boundaries.
Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Quickly firming Tuesday leaves outstanding “unfinished business below,” at least a probe under last Tuesday night’s 2.65 low. The interim bounce could still extend up to 2.86.
Mid-day Update… Some habits die hard.
Another singular steep intraday dip.
Last week’s sessions each included a singular, steep dip. Nothing is odd about there being one here and there. Little is odd about retracing it entirely. But each of the four sessions dipped, and each session was recovered entirely. (Almost all — one was recovered almost all the way.)
Monday’s breakout skipped the pattern, but didn’t break it. At least, not insofar as the dip, since the noon hour has plunged 9 points down to 2357.50. But its reaction up to 2363.75 is still several points short of a complete recovery.
A recovery wouldn’t necessarily be bullish. It would have to become a reversal and close well into positive territory to confirm yesterday’s breakout. Which wasn’t the likeliest scenario, anyway.
Meanwhile, a test of this morning’s 2372.25 bias-up signal became “unfinished business above”. Plunging just 30 minutes earlier could have invalidated the objective, but now it requires a test. Which is likely today or tomorrow so long as 2361.00 holds as support.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Mar 1, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday night’s address by President Trump to a joint session of Congress will likely be discounted to a great degree before the speech. Those trial balloons and telegraphs will likely have had a greater effect on price action intraday. Wednesday’s econ calendar stays busy, both high-profile and influential to price action. The afternoon’s Beige Book will affect rate hike odds for the next FOMC policy meeting which is getting closer.
Bullard Speaks
Tue 6:30 PM ET
State of the Union* (*not)
Tue 9:00 PM ET
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
Personal Income and Outlays
8:30 AM ET
Gallup U.S. Job Creation Index
8:30 AM ET
*PMI Manufacturing Index
9:45 AM ET
*ISM Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET
Construction Spending
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
*Robert Kaplan Speaks
12:30 PM ET
*Beige Book
2:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2369.25 | 2368.25 |
| …would target | 2374.75 | 2373.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2362.50 | 2361.50 |
| …would target | 2357.00 | 2356.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.