Posts by Rod David
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Feb 22, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Wednesday afternoon’s FOMC Minutes often inhibits price action before its release. Lately, it hasn’t had much effect in reaction to its release. But affirming or contradicting last week’s Yellen testimony could be impactful.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
Existing Home Sales
10:00 AM ET
2-Yr FRN Note Auction
11:30 AM ET
5-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
*FOMC Minutes
2:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2365.00 | 2363.00 |
| …would target | 2370.50 | 2368.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2356.00 | 2354.25 |
| …would target | 2349.50 | 2347.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… WedEXing higher.
Open’s surge renews bias-up.
Last Wednesday’s close had triggered a bullish WedEX signal. Its influence Friday afternoon has extended 
into the next US morning. As it should, regardless of the Globex action since Friday.
Gapping up to 2353.00 has extended single-mindedly, if not also relentlessly. The first relevant hesitation was well above last week’s highs attacking 2360.00. Persistently overbought 3-minute RSI indicated that 1-minute RSI diverging negatively would likely resolve up.
In fact, the 2361.00 bias-up target was exceeded through 10:15 up to 2363.50. This renews the bias-up signal, next targeting 2365.00-2366.00.
The bullish WedEX’s influences lapses along with the bias environment at 11:30. Extending higher any later or for any longer would not be associated with WedEX. All upside attractions will have been neutralized, including the very recently created “new Globex trend extreme.” The renewed bias-up signal and its target are not requirements.
i.e. Nothing requires extending higher this afternoon, or prevents reversing course back down.
Regardless, new highs are not a sell signal. And trend extremes don’t happen into and/or out of expiration. Overbought RSIs at the 2263.50 high would require its eventual recovery in case a corrective pullback were to develop first.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording…
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Holding a test of Friday morning’s 2337.75 bias-down signal had put into play an offsetting test of its 2348.25 bias-up signal. That context aided the bullish WedEX’s afternoon influence. The morning’s consolidation broke higher during the afternoon bias environment, into a last-minute touch of 2348.25. The new high close didn’t qualify as a new trend high close despite being above Wednesday’s trend high close, since Friday’s high was under Wednesday’s high — Wednesday’s high wasn’t even breached until after coming to within 3 minutes of the cash session close.
Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s modest gap down dipped to 2346.00 before starting to recover, extending to attack Wednesday’s highs up to 2350.50. Then a midnight surge attacked 2355.00, and a brief consolidation resolved in another surge attacking 2357.00. Retracing the entire surge back down to its 2349.50 origin Monday morning has since ranged sideways to attack 2355.00 again, and now again ahead of today’s open.
If, then…
After influential Friday afternoon, the actively bullish WedEX signal seems to have been influential Monday morning. But the real influence is on US price action, which has yet to resume. The “new Globex trend extreme” adds an attraction above, in addition to pre-existing pattern measurements next targeting 2365.00-2366.00. This morning should be focused on the upside, unless the open is already rejecting Friday’s last-minute surge.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2356.25 would be likely also to trigger the 2355.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2350.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2356.50 | 2355.00 |
| …would target | 2362.50 | 2361.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2349.00 | 2347.50 |
| …would target | 2344.00 | 2342.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.