Posts by Rod David
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Despite initially extending lower after gaping down under its 1.0570 target, Wednesday bounced back into positive territory. Now despite having held its 1.0605 bounce limit through Wednesday’s close, Thursday gapped up to the 1.0645 prior target. And extended higher to 1.0695 resistance. Which is all a little quick to be durable, so a dip back down to 1.0560 is likely.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping up Thursday above the prior recent rally peaks at 1236.00 extended to test the 1242.00 minimum objective and attack 1244.00. A second consecutive higher close Friday would signal that the bounce’s delay will be compensated for by extending to 1259.00.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s gap up extended to within a nickel of the 18.18 objective, whose recovery through the close would next target 18.72.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Firming Thursday morning probed the adjusted 150-14 bounce limit as well as the previous 150-26 bounce limit, attacking 151-11. The bounce developed from Wednesday’s test of February’s prior lows, so it is likely only obligatory and temporary. And rejecting a single day’s probe above the bounce limit(s) by reversing down sharply Friday can reinstate the decline’s momentum.
Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The 52.55-53.55 range persisted Thursday, once again dipping only to 52.75. The range’s upper-end was also tested, continuing to chip away at both resistance and support in the same session to suggest that a break either way is nearing.
Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s EIA report was greeted from a position of strength to the extent that the decline’s 2.91 target had been met, and held, and reacted to. But only briefly, and without yet reversing momentum up, keeping the door open to at least a negative knee-jerk reaction down. Which the report’s reaction fulfilled by dropping to fresh lows. Closing back above 2.93 would start to confirm a bottom is forming.
Mid-day Update… Consolidating its gains.
Rally pauses for another no-bias.
This morning’s bias environment neutralized both the offsetting test of this morning’s 2342.00 bias-down signal 
and yesterday’s “unfinished business below” at 2342.25. That was done during a plunge from 2347.75 that eventually touched 2336.75.
But no-bias had already triggered. Probing under this morning’s 2342.00 bias-down signal during a no-bias environment is “no-bias trending.” It requires bouncing back up to at least 2342.00, if not also to the 2344.00 10:15 print. Both were tested during the noon hour.
The bounce also attacked this afternoon’s 2345.50 bias-up signal to within 1 tick. No-bias has triggered again. The 2339.75 bias-down signal was attacked into 1:30, but held. Probing under it could still test fresh session lows, once again as “no-bias trending” that would require recovery.
Without there being an objective in-play, and without first testing an extreme, price action through the close may otherwise be less predictable.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Feb 17, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Friday’s LEI is the morning’s only influential and high-profile report. No pre-open reports precede it that might have indicates the post-open reports’ reaction. But it is monthly expiration, and ahead of a three-day holiday weekend, so price action might be very interesting — or else it will be a very boring afternoon.
E-Commerce Retail Sales
10:00 AM ET
*Leading Indicators
10:00 AM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2347.25 | 2345.50 |
| …would target | 2353.00 | 2351.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2341.25 | 2339.50 |
| …would target | 2335.25 | 2333.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Stickiness.
Flat-to-lower open trades lower-to-flat.
The overnight slide had extended down to 2344.50 before bouncing into the 2348.00 open. And through it, up to 2349.75. That tested the bias-up signal by 3 ticks, which held through 10:15 to trigger no-bias.
An offsetting test of the 2342.00 bias-down signal was attacked to within 3 ticks or less. It won’t become “unfinished business below” if left outstanding. Yesterday afternoon’s 2342.25 bias-up signal was also retraced to within 3 ticks, neutralizing its required retest.
Selling done? Possibly, but that wouldn’t default back to rally mode. This IS a no-bias environment. In fact, bouncing up to 2347.75 is reacting down sharply back to new session lows.
Meanwhile, nothing has changed about the timing, which enables a deeper retracement before even consolidating. But now the 2342.25 bias-down signal should define the window’s lower-end, at least to not let a break stray too deep.