Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2279.00 | 2275.00 |
| …would target | 2284.75 | 2281.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2269.75 | 2266.00 |
| …would target | 2263.75 | 2259.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, BIAS-UP SIGNAL TESTED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Early bird got worms.
Bias-up target held, bias-up signal not so much.
Slightly higher highs greeted the open at 2282.00. A post-open surge touched 2285.00.
That didn’t last long.
Slipping back under the 2283.50 bias-up target had room for noise, alone, down to the 2278.50 bias-up signal. It was met, and tested through the 10:15 bias timing window to invoke the grace period.
2278.50 was still being overlapped at 10:30. Overlapped to within 2 ticks. That’s not a decisive rejection of the bias-up, but price has slid anyway. down to 2272.00.
Decisively rejecting both bias-up parameters would have put into play offsetting tests of both bias-down parameters. A synthetic bias-down. This morning’s setup doesn’t require it, and sponsorship for trending will be difficult ahead of this afternoon’s FOMC statement.
Regardless, back above 2277.00 would signal the post-open drop was absorbed, and momentum is reversing up into the announcement. Otherwise, the 2270.75 bias-down signal can offer support, but with no requirement to hold or to prevent extending down to the 2265.25 bias-down target.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording…
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Monday’s drop had overshot the 2275.00 support of “lower prior highs,” down to 2263.50. The close had recovered to 2275.00, but not above it, and only due to a weak-handed rally, which left “unfinished business below” requiring a retest at the 2263.50 low’s oversold RSIs. That attraction defined Tuesday’s session, since no overnight rally developed. Testing 2263.50 neutralized the attraction below, and its reaction tried again to recover 2275.00. That was again the cash session close, produced by a weak-handed rally — but this time there was no unfinished business below left outstanding..
Overnight action’s new info…
A shallow post-close surge tested 2278.00, defining the range’s upper-end past midnight. Its lower-end briefly touched 2275.00. Firming to 2281.50 ahead of Europe’s opens only established a narrower range’s upper-end, its lower-end supported by 2278.00.
If, then…
Near-term trending should be obvious before the open, before becoming most vulnerable to anxiousness ahead of the afternoon’s FOMC policy statement. The overnight rally is so far only noise back up to Monday’s 2281.00 opening print. Rallying any higher could face the challenge of already testing last Thursday and Friday’s 2287.00-2291.00 “higher prior lows,” which could be solid resistance. Greeting the news from a shallower morning rally could be the right mix of momentum and restrained optimism that can accelerate back to last week’s highs. Opening back under 2275.00 could still reflect patient buyers, while still being vulnerable to revisiting this week’s lows — which would now be likely to break lower on the way to testing 2248.50. .
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2281.00 would be likely to trigger the 2278.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2275.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2283.00 | 2278.50 |
| …would target | 2288.00 | 2283.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2275.25 | 2270.75 |
| …would target | 2269.75 | 2265.25 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, BIAS-UP TARGET MET | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
The bias environment was exited under the noon hour’s 2268.50 high. But the final hour was entered at fresh afternoon highs to 2271.00. Extending higher through the 3:10-3:20 proxy window would have confirmed traction was gained. It didn’t, but that didn’t prevent extending higher to attack 2277.00 through the close.
The cash session close equated to 2275.00. Again. Not recovered, not broken, by a weak-handed rally. Again. Vulnerable again to reacting down overnight, overcome if extended higher overnight. Again.
Any near-term trending should be obvious before the open, before typical anxiousness ahead of the afternoon’s FOMC statement. The nearby attraction below at Monday’s oversold RSIs is met and held. “Higher prior lows” back to last Thursday and Friday’s 2287.00-2291.00 could both attract and repel price. So, there’s plenty of room for action on Wednesday.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.