Posts by Rod David
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Jan 31, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday morning’s calendar is busy, high-profile, and two post-open reports have a reliable track record for influencing price action. Any obvious reaction to the pre-open reports would likely be duplicated post-open. And the PMI report often triggers a reaction among its institutional subscribers, which is repeated when released several minutes later to the rest of us
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Employment Cost Index
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller HPI
9:00 AM ET
*Chicago PMI
9:45 AM ET
*Consumer Confidence
10:00 AM ET
State Street Investor Confidence Index
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
52-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Farm Prices
3:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2280.25 | 2275.75 |
| …would target | 2285.50 | 2281.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2270.50 | 2266.00 |
| …would target | 2264.75 | 2260.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Stumble, stumble, plunge.
Still haven’t found strong-handed buyers.
Gapping down had suggested the rally would be seeking out buyers at lower levels, still trying to stretch the rubber band enough to snap momentum back up. “Lower prior highs” at 2275.00 had been the likely objective after Thursday and Friday’s dips to 2292.00 and 2287.00 had proved too shallow.
2275.00 was too shallow, too. A fresh low just printed 2263.25. Like the lows that preceded it, its 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs were oversold. And that requires at least an eventual retest of the low.
Currently bouncing to 2266.00, another point higher would start to suggest a bigger bounce underway. It’s too soon to suspect it of gaining traction, or of avoiding a retest of the oversold RSIs low.
A low will need to form relatively soon, and relatively nearby, because the only other support below is prior lows, and that’s not very durable.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording…
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Friday’s 2294.00 open was flat with Thursday’s close, and with Thursday’s open, and with Wednesday’s close. Post-open action quickly slid and extended through the morning to attack 2277.00. The balance of the session ranged narrowly sideways into the close. Any attraction to retesting Wednesday night’s “new Globex trend extreme” at 2299.50 was well hidden, although sellers were influential only during the morning.
Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open gapped down 7 points and soon extended 1 more to touch what is already this morning’s 2281.00 bias-down target. Europe’s opens triggered a surge to attack 2286.00, but only briefly before price settled back down to attack the 2282.00 open.
If, then…
Resuming the rally already this morning had required gapping up this morning, which seems quite off the table. Resuming the rally Thursday or Friday had depended on their opening or intraday weakness stretching the rubber band tightly enough to snap back up. That tactic seems to be back on the table. Having tested the bias-down target overnight, holding a test of the bias-down signal should be tight enough. Otherwise, there is room down to 2275.00-2277.00 before the next deep enough stretch.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2277.00 would be likely also not to recover the 2281.00 bias-down target by 10:15, which would renew the bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 2283.25 would be likely to hold the bias-down target.
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2299.00 | 2294.50 |
| …would target | 2304.75 | 2300.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2290.50 | 2286.25 |
| …would target | 2285.50 | 2281.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.