Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2302.25 | 2297.50 |
| …would target | 2307.00 | 2302.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2293.75 | 2289.25 |
| …would target | 2289.00 | 2284.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
A nearly last-minute high touched 2295.25. Its reaction down was still above the bias environment’s 2294.25 high when the cash session closed. The next higher objective is 2227.00, which is likely to be met aggressively, regardless of confirming Wednesday’s breakout on Thursday. Reacting down sharply Thursday would still leave unfinished business above back at Wednesday’s opening gap up.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Pre-close View… The next leg is being signaled.
REMINDER: MARKET WRAP BEGINS AT 3:33pm ET.
Probing new highs intraday, by double digits. Observations don’t get much stronger than that. Today could form a breakout, putting into play 2227.00.
That would be subject to a second consecutive higher close tomorrow. And before then, a breakout would be subject to actually maintaining the rally through the close.
A trending session that exits the afternoon bias environment at a fresh session extreme is rarely reversed before the close. But when it is reversed, it is reversed hard. A reversal has very little time to accomplish anything predictive — like closing under the 2286.50 opening print.
Event the most bullish scenario would still allow dipping into the close, but not any deeper than 2287.25. And while it’s probably too late to enter the final hour above the bias environment high, the 3:10-3:20 proxy window could still gain traction.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
A third consecutive session Wednesday fluctuating narrowly around last week’s high is more likely forming a Double Top, and less likely basing to launch a new upleg. So, any initial weakness would be likely to trend down.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday’s dip to the 1209.00 pullback limit extended down overnight to gap down Wednesday and test the 1195.00 sell signal. No unfinished business above would be left outstanding.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday night’s dip attacked the 16.75 sell signal despite there likely being one more higher close outstanding in the pattern. Otherwise, having filled the gap Tuesday back up to last Wednesday’s close, no other unfinished business above would remain outstanding.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Having retraced Monday’s corrective bounce up to 152-22 by closing Tuesday back under 151-11, Wednesday exploited the opportunity to resume the sealed top’s decline. The 149-08 low retraced all of the month’s gain, and attacked the first day’s gap down that had been recovered abruptly..
Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The overnight dip in reaction to Tuesday’s post-close API report was recovered to retest 53.25 resistance, but reversed down again after EIA. Now the consolidation is free to resolve in either direction, likely down to 49.05 and 47.75.
Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Ranging narrowly Wednesday is greeting Thursday’s EIA report from a position of weakness. Tuesday’s high neutralized the attraction to a gap above, while a gap at prior lows down to 3.12 remains outstanding.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Jan 26, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: A fourth Housing sector report is released Thursday. Already, several other econ reports will have been released pre-open, and any price reaction to them will likely be duplicated post-open — especially with LEI. The two Fed sectors have no track record for influencing price action.
International Trade in Goods
8:30 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Chicago Fed National Activity Index
8:30 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
*PMI Services Flash
9:45 AM ET
New Home Sales
10:00 AM ET
*Leading Indicators
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index
11:00 AM ET
7-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET