Posts by Rod David
Post-open Review… Keeping sellers disinterested.
Muted opening strength isn’t attracting sellers.
The 2263.50 opening print did gap up above yesterday afternoon’s highs. But it was still several points short of the 2266.00 resistance being tested at yesterday’s open. And extending higher post-open wasn’t immediate, and it stopped short of touching the 2266.00 bias-up signal.
Reactions down held 2262.00. If buyers weren’t going to exert much effort, then absorbing them wasn’t going to be due much reward. No-bias was triggered, but no offsetting test of the bias-down signal is required,
A half-hour rally off the retest of 2262.00 is piercing prior highs up to 2266.00. Too late to trigger bias-up, but recovering it through 10:30 could have invalidated the no-bias. Overlapping it does not qualify.
No-bias, or not, probing higher anyway should be doomed to failure. There’s room for noise up to yesterday’s 2267.50 opening peak. Meanwhile, breaking back under 2263.00 would have room down to the 2256.00 bias-down signal until the bias environment begins lapsing — and then no support until fresh lows.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording…
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Sunday night’s probe under Friday afternoon’s 2260.00 lows wasn’t rejected, but it was retraced for Monday’s open to test Friday afternoon’s 2266.00 highs. the retest was rejected abruptly, and the balance of the morning slid sharply to 2251.75. That neutralized the attraction to last Thursday’s oversold RSIs at 2253.00. But one more nearby attraction outstanding at 2248.50 didn’t prevent the balance of the session from rallying back up to attack 2263.00.
Overnight action’s new info…
Ranging narrowly back down to Friday afternoon’s 2260.00 lows only recently tried breaking out. But a shallow surge testing 2264.00 is being retraced back into the range to attack 2260.00.
If, then…
Yesterday afternoon’s recovery expended a lot of energy only to attack unchanged, never returning into positive territory. Trending up this morning all but requires gapping up above yesterday morning’s test of 2266.00. There is currently only the glimpse of that threat, recently probing a fresh overnight high before dipping back into the overnight range. Reversing the probe back under overnight lows would likely kill the recovery threat altogether, and resume yesterday morning’s decline.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2264.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2266.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2260.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2256.00 bias-down signal.
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2271.00 | 2266.00 |
| …would target | 2277.00 | 2272.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2260.75 | 2256.00 |
| …would target | 2255.50 | 2250.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
The noon hour’s test of last weeks’ 2253.00 low had recovered to attack 2262.00 during the bias environment. Its reaction down to 2256.00 was retraced entirely, and even probed by 1 point to attack 2263.00. But the afternoon’s bounce wasn’t extended.
And it could have been.
An objective below had been fulfilled and held. The afternoon’s noN-bias surge didn’t require being retraced, but was retraced anyway. The 2256.75 bias-up signal held as support to avoid reversing momentum down. There was plenty of time for a path up to gain traction. And then less time. And finally no time.
Buyers never regained traction.
Rallying Tuesday morning should begin by gapping up, back above Monday morning’s 2266.00 resistance. Its reward would be another test of prior highs. Trending down could also develop overnight, but need not for the pullback to resume on the way to testing 2248.50 below.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Pre-close View… Too shallow, and too late.
REMINDER: MARKET WRAP BEGINS AT 3:33pm ET.
The late-morning test of the 2253.00 bias-down target had produced a bounce into the noon hour. It was testing this afternoon;s 2257.75 bias-up signal at the wrong time to trigger. A sudden surge probed it by 4 points, but that was retraced when the bias environment began lapsing.
Back above 2260.75 could extend higher intraday. Its signal would be more credible if triggered during the 3:10-3:20 position-squaring window that just opened.
Meanwhile, another bounce is touching 2260.00 at the final hour’s entry. It retraces 61.8% of the bias environment’s late surge. Back under 2256.75 would signal the bounce had failed, reversing momentum down to fresh session lows.