Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2272.50 | 2267.75 |
| …would target | 2278.25 | 2273.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2264.75 | 2259.25 |
| …would target | 2258.25 | 2253.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Probing above 2266.00 did prove itself to be an inflection point. But probing it after the proxy window did prove to be too late to be durable. Its reaction from 2267.25 was reversed down to only 2264.00, and didn’t extend down. So, no compelling hold long, but nothing that prevents briefly probing fresh highs as has been expectations for how a top would form.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Pre-close View… Highs holding on.
REMINDER: MARKET WRAP BEGINS AT 3:33pm ET.
Breaking higher from this afternoon’s consolidation did almost literally explode higher. But only to attack 2267.00, and only briefly. T
hat was a delayed reaction reaction to FOMC Minutes, and not knee-jerk, so its overbought RSIs do require a retest.
Meanwhile, the rally has surpassed all prior “higher prior lows,” and is now only resisted by prior highs. Reactions down from prior highs tend to be only temporary. This further improves our confidence in probing new highs.
But this afternoon’s buyers didn’t gain traction for their efforts. Although the bias environment was exited above the noon hours high, the final hour wasn’t entered higher. And the 3:10-3:20 timing window didn’t serve by proxy — not for lack of proximity.
Probing above 2266.00 could still surge higher before the close. But its durability would be suspect, for having originated too late. And back under 2262.50 would instead start to signal momentum reversing down.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up Wednesday helps to validate Tuesday’s post-open recovery, but that’s not an appropriate launch of an upleg. A little backing-and-filling from 1.0505-1.0520 is likelier than extending higher durably.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Fresh highs were probed already before Wednesday’s open, fulfilling the 1167.00 target up to 1168.60. Being the fourth day of a 4th-day sequence, a fresh high close was unlikely. The close was within Tuesday’s range, but didn’t necessarily reject Wednesday’s gain, so not reversing down at Thursday’s open could extend the rally instead.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s surge to 16.55 was maintained throughout Wednesday. Although not extended, Tuesday’s breakout wasn’t confirmed.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday morning’s recovery had stopped pessimistically short of touching Friday’s 150-24 high. It was touched late Wednesday morning and later pierced by 2 ticks, still targeting 151-12.
Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday morning eventually firmed up to 54.20 resistance, with room for testing “higher prior lows” up to 54.55 before becoming vulnerable to another downdraft. EIA reports this week on Thursday.
Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s EIA report is not being greeted from a position of strength. Wednesday morning returned back down to Tuesday’s 3.27 lows and then probed a couple of points lower, all but confirming Tuesday’s breakout and requiring at least an eventual lower close.
Mid-day Update… Regaining its momentum?
Hovering through the highs, into and out of the noon hour.
The open had surged from 2256.00 up to almost 2264.00. That was the opening 5 minutes. That was corrected down to 2257.50 through the balance of the hour. The balance of the morning retraced the opening high.
And the noon hour probed it by 1 point. Its fresh high was isolated to the noon hour, but only shallowly. Rejecting a more decisive rally effort, or a more decisive rejection, would have suggested the weakest-handed buyers were done. That would have been bearish. But that was avoided.
No-bias triggered, but back under 2261.00 would start to signal a deeper pullback underway. Meanwhile, the rally is free to resume, and to at least test this afternoon’s 2265.75 bias-up signal until the bias environment begins lapsing.