Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2272.00 | 2268.25 |
| …would target | 2276.50 | 2272.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2265.75 | 2262.00 |
| …would target | 2260.75 | 2257.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Settle in.
No rally, slow drift.
The unchanged open at 2265.50 blipped-up to 2268.00 and pierced the overnight high momentarily. But then it went the way of all blips-up and blapped back down. Hard, attacking the 2263.50 overnight low to within 2 ticks. And now probing under it by 2 ticks.
Not already rallying or sliding at the open could have just ranged sideways through the morning (or longer). But not already rallying left the door open to sliding, and to attractions below at oversold RSIs from yesterday’s 2262.25 low. It could be probed to 2260.50, as RSIs haven’t even attacked oversold territory yet.
If selling were to get underway and not hold a test of 2260.50, then there’s deeper oversold RSIs requiring retests. But a rally isn’t likely today before late-afternoon, if at all.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
A blip-down to 2264.25 had accompanied Europe’s opens. It has been retested down to 2263.50. But the open is being greeted at unchanged around 2266.50. This morning is unlikely to rally without already rallying through the open. Otherwise, it’s continually vulnerable to retesting yesterday afternoon’s 2262.25 low, and lower.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… The plot thins.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s open was greeted by an overnight rally up to its 2267.50 bias-up target. Gapping up and extending higher immediately post-open quickly peaked at 2269.50 as sponsorship disappeared. The balance of the session chopped widely, flat-to-lower, in search of new sponsorship. A late dip from 2267.50 to 2262.25 was retraced entirely into the close, leaving “unfinished business below” at its oversold RSIs.
Overnight action’s new info…
But for initially piercing 2267.50 by a single tick, overnight action has probed no higher than Tuesday’s late bounce while ranging narrowly down to 2265.50. That late bounce had retraced back to the origin of a late dip, so the dip was free to repeat, but it did not. At least, not yet. The narrow ranging had been probed momentarily down to 2264.25, which is now being retested.
If, then…
Gapping up today above yesterday’s 2269.50 high could prevent a deeper, by resuming the rally targeting new highs above 2273.00. A deeper dip could also be prevented by.. not dipping, Alternatively, dipping under Tuesday’s 2262.25 low would have a brief opportunity to snap back up from as low as 2260.50. Regardless, this being Wednesday morning ahead of a three-day holiday weekend, inserting a deeper pullback prior to probing new highs should be underway by the open.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2266.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2268.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2262.00 would be likely to trigger the 2263.00 bias-down signal.
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2272.00 | 2268.50 |
| …would target | 2277.25 | 2273.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2265.50 | 2262.00 |
| …would target | 2260.00 | 2256.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.