BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET.

And bias-down target probed.

[pay]Two-thirds of the bullish scenario had developed overnight — fresh lows testing 1799.50 were retraced to unchanged. The bullish scenario’s third condition was missing. Since buyers gained no traction yesterday, rallying this morning required gapping up. But that wasn’t being indicated.

Two out of three ain’t good. Lacking that third element would not be less bullish. It would be bearish. If not extended into positive territory, the pre-open bounce would have only stretched the rubber band before snapping back down to fresh lows.

In fact, the open immediately began dipping under 1803.00 back to 1799.50, and then sharply lower. The 1793.25 bias-down target was fulfilled.

The 1793.25 bias-down target also held through 10:15. Triggering bias-down is not bullish, but holding a test of the target can allow a bottom to form.

It didn’t. At least, it had not, not yet. Oversold RSIs encouraged the low’s retest down to 1791.00. At least 1-minute RSI diverged positively there. Also, another sell signal that had triggered and confirmed was quickly invalidated. And now the 1793.25 bias-down target has been revisited twice.

Back under 1791.25 would start to signal the drop was resuming. But back above 1793.25 would start to signal the drop is being retraced, initially targeting 1797.00.

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