Bias or No-bias, that is the question.

[pay]Afternoon events that can wreak havoc on price action also tend to influence timing windows. That’s the case today apparently. This morning’s late break higher to within 1 tick of the bias-up target was a late-break higher nonetheless. The timing undermined the break’s durability, so now S&Ps are struggling to remain in positive territory after probing the bias-down signal after 1:20.

It’s too late for serious trending with the FOMC news item just minutes away. I’ll probably get bullish if the reaction recovers above 1272’00 without acting toppy. But I’m otherwise ready to short a brief favorable reaction or a negative reaction that extends too far and/or too long to recovery.

The bigger picture is still more likely to retest recent lows, probe them, and break lower into a new downleg. Closing today above this morning’s high would make me suspect the opposite, that a bullish scenario was unfolding.

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