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BIAS-UP – If, Then… Market Timing

BIAS-UP

Pre-open slide fails to gain traction.

es_102813_am.gif[pay]The overnight slide back to 1751.50 still had room below before sellers could gain any traction for their effort. They took none of it. In fact, the open was greeted back at 1754.75, unchanged from Friday’s cash session close.

The opening 15 minutes of volatility took its time before extending the pre-open bounce was extended to probe above Friday’s highs. Even that was retraced immediately to consolidate a little further. But a surge extended to 1757.75, triggering the bias-up signal, putting into play the 1760.25 bias-up target.

That leg’s 1756.50 pullback limit has been probed deeper than its first 3 minutes. This now being a bias-up environment, the next hour’s lower-end should be the 1755.00 bias-up signal, making the dip likely to recover. In fact, an errant tick under 1755.00 just reacted back up to 1756.50.

Any higher would signal that this morning’s rally had resumed. Both 1760.25 and the 1762.25 overnight high’s “new Globex trend extreme” could be tested.

Back under 1754.50 would undermine the bias-up signal. It hasn’t yet been any more productive since before it triggered, so exiting the bias environment under its signal would leave no unfinished business above.

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