Bias-up is (barely) signaled.

Hesitation ahead of Beige Book may be to blame. It had better be.

[pay]The noon hour’s fresh high up to 1283.50 was short-lived. But it was enough to raise the pullback limit to 1282.25. It was the first pullback limit to be violated, eventually probed down to 1280.75.

Its probe bottomed just short of exceeding the 2-3 tick margin under the most recent productive pullback limit of 1281.50. Any deeper would have signaled momentum reversing down. And the probe bottomed just short of 1:20, recovering 1281.00 in time to trigger the afternoon’s bias-up signal.

Actually, 1281.00 was touched within 3 minutes of 1:20. Maintaining its recovery through 1:30 confirmed. But it’s a little suspicious for not also recovering above the 1282.00 interim high.

If buyers lack credibility, sellers have less – they didn’t exploit the bias-up signal’s hesitation. Anxiousness ahead of 2:00’s impending Beige Book release may also be paralyzing price action.

There’s still potential to 1285.75, so long as this afternoon’s bias environment isn’t exited back under 1281.00. But there’s also little likelihood for closing above the open’s 1277.00-1279.00 range. And back under 1280.25 could signal that sellers have finally arrived.

[/pay]