Bias-up target met. Bias-down nearly signaled.

[pay]New lows overnight touched the ESu 1334’00 bias-down signal after an earlier surge had tested the 1338’75 bias-up signal. A return to the bias-up signal was more productive, reaching the 1343’00 bias-up target. The situation since then has been quite fluid, with another round-trip between bias-up signal and target and back again.

The bias-down signal was just retested in reaction to the LEI report at 10:00. Indeed, last week’s 1333’00 low was nearly touched but for 1 tick’s difference. That was enough to produce a nearly 5-point bounce, more evidence that optimism is alive and well, and preventing the market from forming a durable bottom. The prior low should actually be probed so that a recovery can be meaningful, closing back above the decline’s 1337’50 target, and preferably above 1442’50.

The bias-up target was met, so triggering no-bias at 10:15 would be a sell signal. The market is actually threatening to trigger the 1334’00 bias-down, which would be even more bearish for having triggered after fulfilling the bias-up target.

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